US Dollar Outlook: DXY Reversal, Oil Volatility and the Straits of Hormuz Driving Markets
The US dollar sits at a critical inflection point as DXY reverses from range highs. Oil volatility, Fed rate expectations and risks in the Straits of Hormuz are driving FX, equities and global markets.
Cross-Asset Correlations Remain At 1 With Crude Still In The Driving Seat
With Hormuz disruptions persisting, crude remains the primary market driver, sustaining tight cross-asset correlations and cautious risk positioning.
Markets Are Looking At The Wrong Second-Round Effects Of The Energy Shock
A hawkish repricing of G10 policy expectations suggests markets are over-simplifying the economic backdrop, with the commodity shock more likely to significantly dent demand, than to lead to second-round inflationary effects.
Gold Outlook: $5,000 Key Level in Focus as Geopolitics and Fed Meeting Drive Markets
Strong dollar and leveraged long liquidations pressure gold, while institutional and central bank buying provide support. Holding $5,000 is critical for near-term direction, but escalating geopolitical tensions or a hawkish Fed could trigger greater volatility.
Trading the Week Ahead: Oil, USD Strength and Rising Drawdown Risk in the S&P 500
Markets enter a volatile week with oil driving cross-asset moves. Traders watch escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed decision, RBA meeting, private credit stress, and rising equity correlations.
Bitcoin Tests $70,000: High-Beta Behavior Persists, Institutional Funds Remain Key
Bitcoin is once again challenging the $70,000 level, showing short-term behavior more akin to a high-beta risk asset. Price support comes from institutional inflows, futures leverage, and its correlation with the dollar, but miner selling pressure, geopolitical risks, and regulatory uncertainty remain key market concerns.
US Dollar Strength Builds as Inflation and Oil Risks Reprice Fed Expectations
The US dollar is gaining momentum as oil prices surge and inflation expectations rise. Markets are repricing Fed rate cuts, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar index is testing key resistance near 100.
March 2026 BoE Preview: Cuts Postponed
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, amid elevated uncertainty owing to the present geopolitical backdrop, with the subsequent commodity price shock presenting a significant upside inflation risk in the near-term. Still, policymakers are ultimately likely to view said shock as temporary in nature, leaving further rate cuts on the cards as the year goes on.
February 2026 US CPI: Before The Energy Shock
February’s US CPI report sprang nothing by way of surprises, though matters not one bit to markets, or the FOMC, with attention now falling squarely on the upside inflation risks posed by the ongoing energy price shock amid conflict in the Middle East.
AUD Trading Outlook: 0.7150 in Focus Ahead of RBA Meeting
The Australian dollar is the top performing G10 currency in 2026, supported by rising RBA rate expectations, strong terms of trade and bullish momentum across major FX crosses. We look at what's attracting the flows to the AUD.
March 2026 ECB Preview: Looking Through The Energy Shock
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council are set to hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, looking-through the energy price shock for now, even with the inflation profile likely to be revised notably higher in the updated economic projections.
Oil Market Volatility Crisis: Have We Passed the Peak of the Energy Shock?
Oil markets experienced one of the most dramatic volatility shocks in years as Brent surged to $119 and options volatility exploded. We assess whether markets are stabilising and what traders should watch next.
March 2026 FOMC Preview: Powell On Pause In Penultimate Meeting
The FOMC are set to stand pat at the March meeting, not only in light of having adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach at the first confab of the year, but also as a huge degree of uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook, after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent energy price shock, which tilts near-term inflation risks to the upside.
Crude Surges Amid Risk Rout With Geopolitics In Focus
Energy markets are driving cross-asset price action as Hormuz disruption pushes crude above $100/bbl, lifting inflation expectations and weighing on risk assets.
February 2026 US Employment Report: A Huge Downside Surprise
The February US jobs report pointed to payrolls having unexpectedly declined last month, and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The FOMC, however, are unlikely to over-react to the data, given one-off factors skewing the payrolls print lower, and the fog of uncertainty caused by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
China Lowers 2026 GDP Target: Policy Focus Shifts to Structural Upgrades and Market Repricing
China sets 2026 GDP target at 4.5%–5%, emphasizing structural upgrades, tech innovation, and boosting domestic demand. Short-term market volatility is manageable, but policy execution, property sector pressures, and external risks warrant attention.
Crude Oil Volatility Highest Since 2022 as Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Market Uncertainty
Energy markets are experiencing extreme volatility as Middle East tensions disrupt supply routes and infrastructure. Brent crude implied volatility is at its highest since 2022, with analysts modeling scenarios ranging from $60 to $120 depending on supply disruptions.
‘Buy America’ Returns As Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Upside
Geopolitical risk has fuelled renewed haven demand for the dollar, which has proved the only shelter for market participants amid recent turmoil.