TACO Time, Again - Trump Seeks To De-Escalate Middle East Conflict
Via Truth Social, President Trump has announced a 5-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, and talks with the nation aimed at a 'complete and total' resolution to the conflict, sparking a violent risk-on market reaction.
Gold Outlook: Inflation and Rate Expectations Drive Trading, Geopolitical Risks Remain Key
Gold falls 10% in a single week as trading logic shifts from safe-haven demand to inflation and interest rates. Rising oil prices push inflation expectations higher, while higher real yields and tightening liquidity weigh on prices. Geopolitical developments continue to be a key factor for the market.
A Traders' Playbook: Trading Trump’s Ultimatum – Oil, Rates and Rising Market Stress
Markets enter a pivotal week as Trump’s Iran ultimatum drives oil, volatility and rate expectations. Here’s how crude, equities and central banks are shaping trading risks.
A Monetary Policy Mistake May Be On The Horizon
G10 central banks risk a policy mistake as hawkish rhetoric clashes with weak growth and limited second-round inflation risks from the energy shock.
March 2026 ECB Review: In ‘Wait & See’ Mode
The ECB stood pat at the March meeting, as expected, while adopting a ‘watch and wait’ approach amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
March 2026 BoE Review: Energy Shock Forces ‘Old Lady’ To Stand Pat
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold Bank Rate steady at the conclusion of the March MPC meeting, while delivering an overall hawkish message, that casts doubt on the possibility of further rate cuts this year.
Gold Falls Below $5,000: Safe-Haven Logic Takes a Back Seat as Inflation Hedging Drives the Market
Escalating geopolitical tensions failed to lift gold, which fell 3.7% in a single day, breaking the $5,000 mark. Long liquidations, delayed rate cut expectations, and a stronger dollar coincided, shifting the market focus from safe-haven buying to inflation hedging, potentially amplifying short-term volatility.
March 2026 FOMC Review: Watching & Waiting
The FOMC stood pat at the March meeting, as expected, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, though rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year, assuming renewed disinflationary progress begins to be made.
US Dollar Outlook: DXY Reversal, Oil Volatility and the Straits of Hormuz Driving Markets
The US dollar sits at a critical inflection point as DXY reverses from range highs. Oil volatility, Fed rate expectations and risks in the Straits of Hormuz are driving FX, equities and global markets.
Cross-Asset Correlations Remain At 1 With Crude Still In The Driving Seat
With Hormuz disruptions persisting, crude remains the primary market driver, sustaining tight cross-asset correlations and cautious risk positioning.
Markets Are Looking At The Wrong Second-Round Effects Of The Energy Shock
A hawkish repricing of G10 policy expectations suggests markets are over-simplifying the economic backdrop, with the commodity shock more likely to significantly dent demand, than to lead to second-round inflationary effects.
Gold Outlook: $5,000 Key Level in Focus as Geopolitics and Fed Meeting Drive Markets
Strong dollar and leveraged long liquidations pressure gold, while institutional and central bank buying provide support. Holding $5,000 is critical for near-term direction, but escalating geopolitical tensions or a hawkish Fed could trigger greater volatility.
Trading the Week Ahead: Oil, USD Strength and Rising Drawdown Risk in the S&P 500
Markets enter a volatile week with oil driving cross-asset moves. Traders watch escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed decision, RBA meeting, private credit stress, and rising equity correlations.
Bitcoin Tests $70,000: High-Beta Behavior Persists, Institutional Funds Remain Key
Bitcoin is once again challenging the $70,000 level, showing short-term behavior more akin to a high-beta risk asset. Price support comes from institutional inflows, futures leverage, and its correlation with the dollar, but miner selling pressure, geopolitical risks, and regulatory uncertainty remain key market concerns.
US Dollar Strength Builds as Inflation and Oil Risks Reprice Fed Expectations
The US dollar is gaining momentum as oil prices surge and inflation expectations rise. Markets are repricing Fed rate cuts, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar index is testing key resistance near 100.
March 2026 BoE Preview: Cuts Postponed
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, amid elevated uncertainty owing to the present geopolitical backdrop, with the subsequent commodity price shock presenting a significant upside inflation risk in the near-term. Still, policymakers are ultimately likely to view said shock as temporary in nature, leaving further rate cuts on the cards as the year goes on.
February 2026 US CPI: Before The Energy Shock
February’s US CPI report sprang nothing by way of surprises, though matters not one bit to markets, or the FOMC, with attention now falling squarely on the upside inflation risks posed by the ongoing energy price shock amid conflict in the Middle East.
AUD Trading Outlook: 0.7150 in Focus Ahead of RBA Meeting
The Australian dollar is the top performing G10 currency in 2026, supported by rising RBA rate expectations, strong terms of trade and bullish momentum across major FX crosses. We look at what's attracting the flows to the AUD.