The ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Explains US Resilience Despite Stalling Labour Market
A weakening labour market no longer stunts US growth as much as it once did; instead, asset prices and the wealth effect now dominate consumption and macro outcomes.
US Small Caps Outperform As Sector Rotation Continues
One notable theme of the US equity complex in recent weeks has been an increasing sector rotation under the surface, even as the broad-based rally rolls on at an index level.
Bitcoin Breaks $95,000: Short Squeeze Drives Move, Trend Remains Uncertain
Bitcoin surpasses $95,000 key resistance as short squeezes fuel a sharp rally, supported by fundamentals and institutional flows, but trend continuation remains to be confirmed.
Metals Continue To Run Higher Amid Myriad Bullish Catalysts
Metals are surging to record highs as fiscal risk, geopolitics, momentum, and supply tightness fuel a powerful, broad-based bull run.
December 2025 US CPI: Cooler Than Consensus
December’s US CPI report produced a cooler than consensus core CPI figure which, while not materially altering the near-term policy outlook, keeps the Fed on track for further cuts later in the year.
JPY Softens Amid Early Election Chatter
Rumours of an early Japanese election have sparked a further round of JPY weakness, and fuelled expectations that MoF intervention could also come sooner rather than later.
Alphabet Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap: AI Strategy and Gemini Ecosystem Poised to Shape the Future
On January 12, Alphabet’s market value surpassed $4 trillion. The Apple-Gemini partnership, AI-driven ad integration, and cloud cost advantages highlight Google’s AI strategy, ecosystem moat, and long-term growth potential.
Gold Outlook: Price Challenges $4,600, Eyes on U.S. CPI and Retail Sales
Gold briefly surged past $4,600, reaching a record high. Rising geopolitical tensions, weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls, and ongoing central bank buying continue to support prices. This week, U.S. CPI and retail sales may trigger short-term volatility.
Trump Ups The Ante In Feud With Powell
The DoJ's sending of subpoenas to the Fed should be seen for what it is - another blatant attempt to erode policy independence.
U.S. Senate Crypto Market Structure Bill Vote: Why It Matters for Ethereum, Solana and the Crypto Market
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on the Crypto Market Structure Bill. Democratic support could reignite Ethereum and broader crypto upside.
December 2025 US Employment Report: Hiring Cools, Unemployment Falls
December’s US labour market report pointed to the pace of hiring having cooled, but unemployment also declining, as the year drew to a close. The Fed are now likely to stand pat at the end of the month, but further cuts remain on the cards this year.
Trump’s $200B MBS Purchase Plan: Short-Term Housing Rally, Long-Term Risks Amplified
Trump’s Bold MBS Move: Lower mortgage rates may temporarily boost housing and markets, but systemic risks and execution uncertainty remain.
Geopolitical Risk in 2026 Is Rising and Markets May Be Underpricing It
We are only nine days into 2026, yet the pace and scale of geopolitical developments already suggest a material shift in the global risk landscape.
Neutral Rate Revisited: Markets May Be Pricing the Fed Wrong
Revisiting the Fed’s neutral rate through history and balance sheet dynamics challenges the case for a higher terminal rate and argues for a longer, deeper easing cycle, and thus a more supportive backdrop for risk than the market may currently price.
Q4 25 US Bank Earnings: By The Numbers
Fourth quarter earnings season will soon be underway with, as usual, major Wall Street banks kicking things off.
A Look Ahead To Q4 25 US Earnings Season
With the S&P 500 priced for near-perfection, Q4 earnings season will test a key pillar of the equity bull case. Banks, Big Tech, and AI capex plans are firmly in focus.
Venezuela after the capture of Nicolás Maduro: implications for oil, emerging markets and the global order
Recent developments in Venezuela have brought the country back into focus for global financial markets, raising critical questions around oil supply, emerging market risk premia and geopolitical stability in Latin America. While the immediate effects on crude prices appear contained, the episode adds a new layer of uncertainty that may influence capital flows, investor sentiment and long-term market expectations. This report explores the potential scenarios ahead and their implications for oil markets, Venezuela and the global order.
Preview For The December 2025 US Jobs Report
The impact of last year's deferred layoff program has likely now entirely fed through the data.