Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
Michael Brown is a seasoned, award-winning market analyst, with a record of providing pertinent commentary, analysis, and forecasting across all major asset classes, principally through a global macro focus, over a decade in the financial services industry. He frequently appears in a wide range of UK and international media, discussing major risk events, key market trends, and broader macroeconomic themes. Michael holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University.
Most recent articles
A Monetary Policy Mistake May Be On The Horizon
G10 central banks risk a policy mistake as hawkish rhetoric clashes with weak growth and limited second-round inflation risks from the energy shock.
March 2026 ECB Review: In ‘Wait & See’ Mode
The ECB stood pat at the March meeting, as expected, while adopting a ‘watch and wait’ approach amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
March 2026 BoE Review: Energy Shock Forces ‘Old Lady’ To Stand Pat
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold Bank Rate steady at the conclusion of the March MPC meeting, while delivering an overall hawkish message, that casts doubt on the possibility of further rate cuts this year.
March 2026 FOMC Review: Watching & Waiting
The FOMC stood pat at the March meeting, as expected, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, though rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year, assuming renewed disinflationary progress begins to be made.
Cross-Asset Correlations Remain At 1 With Crude Still In The Driving Seat
With Hormuz disruptions persisting, crude remains the primary market driver, sustaining tight cross-asset correlations and cautious risk positioning.
Markets Are Looking At The Wrong Second-Round Effects Of The Energy Shock
A hawkish repricing of G10 policy expectations suggests markets are over-simplifying the economic backdrop, with the commodity shock more likely to significantly dent demand, than to lead to second-round inflationary effects.
March 2026 BoE Preview: Cuts Postponed
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, amid elevated uncertainty owing to the present geopolitical backdrop, with the subsequent commodity price shock presenting a significant upside inflation risk in the near-term. Still, policymakers are ultimately likely to view said shock as temporary in nature, leaving further rate cuts on the cards as the year goes on.
February 2026 US CPI: Before The Energy Shock
February’s US CPI report sprang nothing by way of surprises, though matters not one bit to markets, or the FOMC, with attention now falling squarely on the upside inflation risks posed by the ongoing energy price shock amid conflict in the Middle East.
March 2026 ECB Preview: Looking Through The Energy Shock
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council are set to hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, looking-through the energy price shock for now, even with the inflation profile likely to be revised notably higher in the updated economic projections.
March 2026 FOMC Preview: Powell On Pause In Penultimate Meeting
The FOMC are set to stand pat at the March meeting, not only in light of having adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach at the first confab of the year, but also as a huge degree of uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook, after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent energy price shock, which tilts near-term inflation risks to the upside.
Crude Surges Amid Risk Rout With Geopolitics In Focus
Energy markets are driving cross-asset price action as Hormuz disruption pushes crude above $100/bbl, lifting inflation expectations and weighing on risk assets.
February 2026 US Employment Report: A Huge Downside Surprise
The February US jobs report pointed to payrolls having unexpectedly declined last month, and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The FOMC, however, are unlikely to over-react to the data, given one-off factors skewing the payrolls print lower, and the fog of uncertainty caused by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
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1. Data for the Pepperstone Group, correct as at October 2025.