Risk Rally Rolls On As Greenback Rolls Over
Stocks extended gains, as gold notched another new record, yesterday, while the greenback rolled over, amid a lack of fresh catalysts. Today, ‘flash’ PMIs, and remarks from Fed Chair Powell are in focus.
Gold Outlook: Prices Hit New Record Highs, Rate Cuts Remain the Main Driver
After a brief pullback, gold has resumed its upward momentum, trading above $3,700 and hitting new record highs. Bullish momentum is supported by Fed rate cut expectations and central bank purchases. Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, with this week’s Fed speeches and core PCE data potentially driving short-term volatility.
Markets Cruise As Thin Docket Awaits
Markets brought ‘more of the same’ into the weekend as stocks rallied, the dollar caught a bid, and the Treasury curve steepened. This week, a much thinner and lighter economic docket awaits.
USD Reversal and Key Event Risks: A Trader’s Week Ahead Playbook
Stay ahead of the markets with this trader’s week ahead playbook. Explore the USD outlook, Fed speeches, Core PCE inflation, PMI releases, Australia CPI, US Treasury auctions, and China’s Loan Prime Rate updates—all in one guide to the top event risks shaping global markets.
Post-Fed Fallout Continues As Blockbuster Week Concludes
Stocks rallied but markets elsewhere endured a ‘day of two halves’ yesterday, as fallout from the FOMC continued, while the BoE stood pat as expected. Today, a barren docket awaits.
US Interest Rate Pricing: Calculating & Quantifying Market Expectations for Fed Policy
Learn how to calculate what the market has priced into US interest rate futures. Explore SOFR futures, Fed funds futures, and CME’s FedWatch tool to track Fed policy expectations, terminal rates, and recession risk.
September 2025 BoE Review: A Pragmatic QT Tweak With Further Cuts On The Cards
The BoE stood pat on rates at the September meeting, while taking a pragmatic decision to slow the pace of QT. An easing bias remains, with a November cut still the base case for now.
Fed Front-Loading As Central Bank Bonanza Continues
The Fed’s 25bp cut, and likely front-loading of rate reductions, further strengthened the bull case for risk on Wednesday, as focus now turns to the BoE, BoJ, and Norges Bank.
September 2025 FOMC Review: When Doves Fly
As expected, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bp at the September meeting, with the accompanying dot plot suggesting a relatively rapid return to neutral could now be on the cards.
August 2025 UK Inflation: Underlying Pressures Ease But Worries Remain
This morning's UK inflation data pointed to price pressures having remained significant, but easing marginally, as the summer wore on.
Markets Brace For Fed To Cut
Markets again meandered on Tuesday despite solid-ish UK jobs, and strong US retail sales data. Today, participants brace for a 25bp Fed cut, with focus falling on guidance for the policy path ahead.
The Fed’s Triple Mandate Poses A Big Risk To Consensus
A little-known third part to the Fed's mandate could pose a big tail risk to heavily crowded consensus trades.
July 2025 UK Jobs Report: Tentative Signs Of Stability
This morning's UK labour market data showed some tentative signs that recent weakness may have bottomed out over the summer.
Calm Before The Event Risk Storm Continues
It proved a relatively calm start to the week yesterday, with conviction somewhat capped ahead of this week’s packed calendar. That deluge of event risk starts today, with UK jobs & US retail sales due.
Gold Outlook: Upward Momentum Pauses, FOMC Meeting in Focus
With expectations of a Fed rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold has settled into a high-level consolidation. This week, U.S. retail sales and the FOMC meeting will be the key events to watch, potentially shaping whether gold can resume a directional trend.
Markets Meander Into A Monster Week
Markets didn’t do especially much on Friday, in a day that felt like the ‘calm before the storm’, with a monster docket ahead this week, including 5 G10 policy decisions, and a data deluge on both sides of the pond.
Trader Insights: Ethereum Poised for a Bullish Breakout, Solana Trending Strongly Higher
The set-up in Ethereum (ETHUSD) looks compelling and kicks firmly onto the radar, with the price action turning increasingly bullish and raising the probability that price could kick higher and make a new assault on the ATHs of 4956.
A Trader’s Week Ahead: Will Powell Deliver Amid a Deluge of Macro Risks?
Stay ahead of the markets with this week’s trader playbook. Key risks include the FOMC meeting with a likely 25bp cut, BoC and Norges Bank rate decisions, U.S. corporate tax payments draining bank reserves, SOFR vs IORB liquidity stress, and potential ‘Triple Witching’ volatility.