The ASX200 had drifted off the radar of late, with greater focus placed on the momentum and set-ups in the US30, US500 and JPN225. Yet here we are, with the AUS200 cash index back above 9000 and eyeing the all-time high of 9114, printed on 22 October. Since reversing off 8400 in November 2025, the rally has been relatively stealthy, with materials driving the bulk of the index appreciation. 

The bid remains firmly in materials, with gold and copper names outperforming. BHP is back above $52 and testing its all-time high of $52.54, as traders position ahead of Tuesday’s FY2026 earnings report. With metals prices holding firm and capital flowing back into resource names, the sector continues to provide structural support to the broader index. 

The financial sector has added meaningful upside momentum. Despite concerns that RBA rate hikes could slow credit demand and weigh on asset quality, recent results suggest the major Australian banks remain well positioned to navigate softer economic conditions. At this stage, the risk of a sharp domestic downturn still appears low, and that confidence is being reflected in price action. 

CBA reported 1H26 cash NPAT of $5.4 billion, coming in 5% above analyst consensus. Investors responded positively to growth in net interest margins, solid return on equity and resilient interest income. New mortgage volumes rose 24% half-on-half to $107 billion, while the business banking division continues to execute efficiently. With positioning less crowded than in prior earnings cycles, the 6.8% rally marked one of the largest single-session gains in the bank’s history. 

Today (13 February), ANZ released its 1Q26 trading update ahead of 1H26 earnings due in May. The update exceeded expectations, with the stock gapping to $39.39 on the open before pushing into fresh all-time highs. The strength in ANZ further reinforces the positive tone across the major banks. 

The ASX200 may grind higher at a slower pace than the NAS100 or JPN225, but when both materials and financials are advancing, the index typically performs well given their heavy weightings. That dynamic is playing out, with the AUS200 cash index breaking above the 28 January swing highs and now sitting just 45 points, or 0.5%, below the prior record of 9114. 

With ASX200 1H26 earnings season rolling in, the key question is whether upcoming reports can match the tone set by CBA and ANZ. If corporate results continue to exceed expectations, the index has the momentum and sector support required to challenge and potentially break above its prior all-time high.

Good luck to all.