- Pepperstone's Anthropic pre-IPO perp CFD pricing rallied from around $110 to above $120, despite the US midterm results triggering a reassessment of the AI infrastructure buildout.
- Democratic victories in governor races in Texas, Georgia and Ohio raise the prospect of tighter restrictions on data-centre construction, electricity consumption and infrastructure costs.
- AI infrastructure developers came under heavy selling pressure, while established hyperscalers rallied as investors reassessed the scarcity value of existing compute capacity.
- Anthropic's reported $895bn in forward compute commitments could provide some protection against rising near-term costs and a competitive advantage if new capacity becomes more expensive or difficult to secure.
- With the Anthropic IPO roadshow approaching, the indicative offer price, public float and institutional bookbuild will become increasingly important in determining whether the pre-IPO premium is justified.
Anthropic's IPO moves into the critical pricing phase
We're moving into the business end of the Anthropic IPO process. Over the coming days, we could see another amendment to the company's S-1 filing, potentially revealing an indicative IPO price range and the number of shares being offered to investors.
These details will provide the foundation for the institutional roadshow and bookbuild, expected to commence around the middle of next week. Once indicative pricing is known, traders can begin assessing the premium in Pepperstone's Anthropic pre-IPO market against the proposed offer price.
That premium should increasingly reflect expectations for excess institutional demand, the size of the public float, potential buying through the opening auction and future passive investment flows. Offsetting these forces will be the supply of shares available for sale, including any early-holder selling permitted under the IPO's lock-up arrangements.
But before we reach that stage, the US midterm elections have introduced a fascinating new variable into Anthropic's pricing.
The blue wave ignites the Anthropic pre-IPO market
As the US midterm results began filtering through Wednesday's Asian session, Pepperstone's Anthropic pre-IPO market (chart below) rallied 12% to $123. What particularly caught my attention was the timing, with buying pressure emerging shortly before we saw a broader rally in Nasdaq, Nikkei and KOSPI futures.
The move raised an interesting question. Why would a more pronounced Democratic blue wave be seen as positive for Anthropic and the broader AI trade, particularly when it could introduce greater restrictions on US data-centre construction?
The answer may lie in how investors are differentiating between AI-related companies that already control compute capacity and those dependent on building new infrastructure.
Why Democratic governors matter for AI infrastructure
The governor election results in Texas, Georgia, Michigan and Ohio could prove particularly consequential for the US data-centre buildout.
Governors don't independently control data-centre approvals, but they can influence legislation, regulatory appointments, electricity policy and investment incentives. Working alongside state legislatures, public utility commissions and local authorities, they can materially affect the cost and pace of new developments.
Texas is especially important, accounting for an estimated 30% of potential new US data-centre capacity by 2030, with these four states collectively expected to account for close to 50% of planned capacity. Gina Hinojosa's victory over Republican incumbent Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race was particularly striking, given Trump's commanding victory in the state in 2024.
Democratic governors-elect in Texas, Georgia and Ohio have advocated stronger protections for electricity customers and local communities, including proposals to pause certain new developments while regulations are reviewed.
The central concern is straightforward: should households bear the cost of grid upgrades required to support enormous AI facilities, or should developers pay more themselves?Tighter restrictions could delay construction, increase capital requirements and constrain future compute supply. These are still proposals and election promises at this stage, rather than enacted statewide bans, but markets are already attempting to price the potential consequences.
AI Infrastructure stocks sold hard, while hyperscalers & Anthropic rally
The market reaction through Wednesday's US cash session was revealing, with investors drawing a clear distinction between the perceived winners and losers of a potentially slower AI infrastructure buildout.
AI infrastructure developer & equipment and power suppliers - including Applied Digital, Galaxy Digital, Vertiv, Eaton, GE Vernova and Core Scientific closed 8-20% lower on the day…
By contrast, Amazon rallied 6.1%, Microsoft gained 6.7%, while Alphabet and Meta also closed higher.
The emerging investment thesis is that existing, powered compute capacity becomes more valuable if new supply is delayed. With demand for AI inference and training continuing to grow, established hyperscalers could enjoy higher utilisation, greater pricing power and potentially improved returns on existing infrastructure.
However, the argument isn't entirely one-sided. Hyperscalers are themselves major builders of new data centres, and sustained restrictions could eventually constrain their growth.
Could Anthropic benefit from possible future compute scarcity?
This is where the Anthropic story becomes particularly interesting.
Anthropic’s recently amended S-1 disclosed approximately $895bn in forward compute and infrastructure commitments with major partners, including Amazon, Google, SpaceX and Microsoft.
A meaningful percentage of its near-term compute requirements is contracted under multi-year arrangements, potentially providing some protection against rising market prices for additional capacity.
If new data-centre construction slows while compute demand continues to rise, Anthropic's contracted access could become a competitive advantage. New AI competitors may face higher costs, longer waiting periods and greater difficulty securing the infrastructure required to compete.
That could strengthen Anthropic's competitive position and potentially support its margins.
However, contracted spending is not the same as guaranteed delivery, and not every agreement necessarily has fixed pricing throughout its term. Some capacity remains dependent on facilities being completed, connected to electricity networks and commissioned.
Beyond the near term, higher compute prices could become a material headwind for Anthropic itself.
Is the rally justified, and can it last?
The blue wave, particularly the governor election results in the 3-4 key data-centre states, has introduced a potentially positive scarcity narrative for companies with established access to compute. Anthropic could be among the beneficiaries.
But I wouldn't automatically conclude that tighter data-centre regulation justifies a materially higher Anthropic valuation.
The real question is whether the economic value of its existing compute commitments outweighs the risks of delayed delivery, higher future costs and constraints on growth.
For now, the price action suggests traders are beginning to differentiate between the winners and losers of a potentially slower US AI infrastructure buildout.
The next major catalyst should be the IPO's indicative price range, followed by the institutional bookbuild, the size of the public float and evidence of excess demand. These will provide a much clearer basis for assessing whether the premium in Anthropic's pre-IPO market is warranted.
The rally above $120 was certainly interesting, particularly given its timing relative to the broader market. Whether it proves sustainable is another matter.
The blue wave may have changed the economics of the AI infrastructure trade, but the IPO price discovery process will ultimately test how much of that opportunity is already reflected in Anthropic's valuation.
