Gold Outlook: Upward Momentum Pauses, FOMC Meeting in Focus
With expectations of a Fed rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold has settled into a high-level consolidation. This week, U.S. retail sales and the FOMC meeting will be the key events to watch, potentially shaping whether gold can resume a directional trend.
Markets Meander Into A Monster Week
Markets didn’t do especially much on Friday, in a day that felt like the ‘calm before the storm’, with a monster docket ahead this week, including 5 G10 policy decisions, and a data deluge on both sides of the pond.
Claims Trump CPI Amid Dovish Cross-Asset Trade
Dovish trade dominated yesterday after an inline US CPI print was accompanied by much softer than expected jobless claims data. Today, UK GDP, and US consumer sentiment, highlight the calendar.
September 2025 ECB Review: Still In A Good Place
The ECB, as expected, stood pat at the September meeting, with the updated staff projections, and Lagarde’s comments, all-but-confirming that the easing cycle is done & dusted.
August 2025 US CPI: Solidifying A September Cut
Both headline and core CPI rose at rates in line with expectations last month, further solidifying the case for a September Fed cut, even as tariffs continue to be passed-through.
Nikkei Hits Record High: Political Shifts, Capital Awakening, and Tech Momentum
The Nikkei 225 has surged past 44,000, setting a historic record. Political change, global easing expectations, and a domestic recovery are fueling the rally - but policy uncertainty suggests the road ahead won’t be smooth.
Turgid Trade As CPI & ECB Loom
Trade was sluggish and a little uninspiring on Wednesday, despite a much cooler-than-expected US PPI print. Today, US CPI highlights the docket, while the ECB are set to stand pat on policy.
September 2025 BoE Preview: On Hold With Balance Sheet In Focus
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, after delivering a rate cut in August, are set to stand pat this time out. However, the Old Lady’s decision on the pace of balance sheet run-off over the next year will be closely watched, especially given the recent jitters at the long-end of the Gilt curve.
Payroll Revisions Ignored As Classic Correlations Set To Stay Broken
Markets took a chunky downward benchmark NFP revision in their stride yesterday, while eurozone govvies remain of interest, as focus begins to turn to CPI & an ECB decision on Thursday.
September 2025 FOMC Preview: Resuming The Journey Back To Neutral
The FOMC are set to deliver a 25bp cut at the conclusion of the September meeting, restarting the journey back to neutral which paused at the end of last year, as policymakers seek to support a stalling labour market, despite tariff-induced inflation risks. Further easing beyond September is on the cards, with another cut most likely to be delivered in December.
Post-Payrolls Momentum Persists
The post-jobs report momentum continued yesterday as stocks and bonds both advanced, while the buck faced headwinds, as gold notched a new ATH. Today, benchmark payrolls revisions are in focus.
Gold Outlook: Prices Break $3,600! U.S. Inflation Becomes Short-Term Focus
Gold continues its upward momentum, surpassing the $3,600 mark. Weak employment data, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support the bulls, while this week’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases will be closely watched.
Stalling Labour Market Keeps Fed On Course To Cut
The disappointing August jobs report saw stocks slip, Treasuries rally, and the dollar dip on Friday, but keeps the Fed on course for a 25bp Sept cut. US CPI, payroll revisions, and an ECB decision highlight the week ahead.
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: Political Developments, US Inflation Data & Central Bank Easing
Get insights on US CPI & PPI, BoJ policy shifts, French politics, China data, and gold’s rally in this week’s market playbook.
Quick Thoughts: Japan PM Ishiba Resigns
Initial thoughts and reaction to Japan PM Ishiba’s weekend resignation announcement.
August 2025 US Employment Report: Locking In A September Cut
The August US jobs report pointed to labour market momentum continuing to wane, keeping the FOMC on track for a 25bp cut later in the month.
A Loss of Fed Credibility? Markets Weigh Trump’s Push to Remove Governor Cook
Trump’s bid to fire Fed Governor Cook raises fears of lost independence. See how markets price credibility risk, rate cuts, USD moves, and gold.
Markets Plod Along Into August Jobs Report
Thursday proved a rather dull day as markets largely took the path of least resistance amid a lack of major catalysts, and as conviction remained lacking into today’s US jobs report, which may not be as consequential as most expect.