Calmer Conditions Prevail Ahead Of Busy Start To Q4
Markets were relatively calm on Friday as data failed to move the needle, with stocks a touch higher, and the dollar modestly softer, into the weekend. This week, a busy docket awaits, highlighted by the latest US jobs report.
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Trading Through an Impending US Government Shutdown
Traders face a pivotal week as the looming US government shutdown threatens to delay key economic data releases, including payrolls. Explore how equities, FX, and volatility may react, and what market participants should watch in the days ahead.
US Economy Sizzles As Sentiment Wobbles
Sentiment wobbled yesterday despite solid US data, as markets priced a more hawkish path for Fed policy. Today, US PCE & final UMich sentiment data highlight the docket.
Markets Meander Amid Dearth Of Catalysts
Markets plodded along, yesterday, amid a lack of fresh catalysts, seeing stocks soften a touch, while the dollar continued to rebound. Today, a busy economic docket awaits, though little is likely to move the needle.
Powell Proffers Nothing New As Light Docket Awaits
Fed Chair Powell delivered a repeat of last week’s press conference in remarks yesterday, though stocks rolled over a touch anyway, as markets elsewhere trod water. A light docket awaits today.
Time For The Buck To Smile Again
2025 has so far been, and likely will go down as, a dismal year for the greenback. However, the tide does appear to be turning somewhat, with that one-way bearish trade possibly having now run its course.
Risk Rally Rolls On As Greenback Rolls Over
Stocks extended gains, as gold notched another new record, yesterday, while the greenback rolled over, amid a lack of fresh catalysts. Today, ‘flash’ PMIs, and remarks from Fed Chair Powell are in focus.
Gold Outlook: Prices Hit New Record Highs, Rate Cuts Remain the Main Driver
After a brief pullback, gold has resumed its upward momentum, trading above $3,700 and hitting new record highs. Bullish momentum is supported by Fed rate cut expectations and central bank purchases. Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, with this week’s Fed speeches and core PCE data potentially driving short-term volatility.
Markets Cruise As Thin Docket Awaits
Markets brought ‘more of the same’ into the weekend as stocks rallied, the dollar caught a bid, and the Treasury curve steepened. This week, a much thinner and lighter economic docket awaits.
Post-Fed Fallout Continues As Blockbuster Week Concludes
Stocks rallied but markets elsewhere endured a ‘day of two halves’ yesterday, as fallout from the FOMC continued, while the BoE stood pat as expected. Today, a barren docket awaits.
September 2025 BoE Review: A Pragmatic QT Tweak With Further Cuts On The Cards
The BoE stood pat on rates at the September meeting, while taking a pragmatic decision to slow the pace of QT. An easing bias remains, with a November cut still the base case for now.
Fed Front-Loading As Central Bank Bonanza Continues
The Fed’s 25bp cut, and likely front-loading of rate reductions, further strengthened the bull case for risk on Wednesday, as focus now turns to the BoE, BoJ, and Norges Bank.
September 2025 FOMC Review: When Doves Fly
As expected, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bp at the September meeting, with the accompanying dot plot suggesting a relatively rapid return to neutral could now be on the cards.
August 2025 UK Inflation: Underlying Pressures Ease But Worries Remain
This morning's UK inflation data pointed to price pressures having remained significant, but easing marginally, as the summer wore on.
Markets Brace For Fed To Cut
Markets again meandered on Tuesday despite solid-ish UK jobs, and strong US retail sales data. Today, participants brace for a 25bp Fed cut, with focus falling on guidance for the policy path ahead.
The Fed’s Triple Mandate Poses A Big Risk To Consensus
A little-known third part to the Fed's mandate could pose a big tail risk to heavily crowded consensus trades.
July 2025 UK Jobs Report: Tentative Signs Of Stability
This morning's UK labour market data showed some tentative signs that recent weakness may have bottomed out over the summer.
Calm Before The Event Risk Storm Continues
It proved a relatively calm start to the week yesterday, with conviction somewhat capped ahead of this week’s packed calendar. That deluge of event risk starts today, with UK jobs & US retail sales due.