Dilin Wu
Research Strategist
Most recent articles
Gold Outlook: A V-Shaped Bounce Defies the Hikes — Rates and Geopolitics Still Call the Shots
Gold staged a V-shaped recovery after both the Fed and the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points. This week, markets will be watching Fed speakers, the U.S.-China summit, and developments in the Middle East, with rate expectations, the dollar, and geopolitical risk all likely to continue shaping gold's direction.
Gold Outlook: A September Hike Is Priced In — Forward Guidance Is What Matters Now
Gold remains stuck between $4,300 and $4,400, buffeted by geopolitical headlines and shifting rate-hike expectations. A September hike is now largely priced in, which means what gold is really waiting on is how the Fed frames its policy path from here. If odds of an October hike build, gold could face further pressure; if markets read this as a "one-and-done" move followed by a pause, a rebound window could open up.
Gold Outlook: Warsh's Hawkish Tilt Boosts Rate-Hike Bets — Payrolls Take Center Stage This Week
Gold Outlook: Warsh's Hawkish Tilt Boosts Rate-Hike Bets — Payrolls Take Center Stage This Week
Gold Outlook: Price Clears $4,600 — Geopolitics, PCE, and Warsh's Speech in Focus
Gold surged 5.2% last week, clearing $4,600 and hitting a three-month high. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of medium- and long-term bond buybacks, combined with a weaker dollar and growing concerns about U.S. fiscal discipline, drove gold through resistance that had held for several months. This week, geopolitical developments, July PCE, and Warsh's address at Jackson Hole are the three key variables that will determine whether the rally can hold.
Anthropic's IPO Looms: Can a $2 Trillion Valuation Survive the Profitability Test?
Anthropic's IPO is entering its countdown phase and could become a key litmus test for AI sector valuations. Can rapid growth and a single quarter of profitability offset sky-high compute costs? Q3 and Q4 earnings performance will be the key to validating the $2 trillion price tag.
Gold Outlook: Bulls Target $4,400 Again — Jackson Hole Is the Real Test
Gold rose for a second consecutive week, with cooling inflation and central bank buying continuing to provide support — but geopolitical turbulence kept $4,400–$4,450 firmly in play as a key resistance zone. As September rate-hike expectations ease, market attention is shifting to the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium, where Warsh's policy remarks could prove pivotal for gold's next move.
Gold Outlook: Bulls Break the Stalemate — CPI To Decide Whether the Rally Has Legs
Gold has broken out of a six-week range and cleared $4,300. Easing geopolitical tensions have taken some of the heat out of inflation fears, while a weak jobs report has further dented September rate-hike expectations — leaving gold's bullish momentum noticeably stronger. This week's July CPI will be the key test, and could determine whether the rally has room to run.
USDJPY Slides to 155: FX Intervention Lifts the Yen, but Rate Differentials Remain the Key Headwind
The yen has staged a strong rebound, with USDJPY falling from around 164 to the 155 region as markets reassess the impact of FX intervention. Still, tension remains between short-term policy action and longer-term fundamentals, and USDJPY's future direction will hinge largely on shifts in the US-Japan rate differential and signals from the two central banks.
Gold Outlook: Fed Holds, Hawks Speak Up — All Eyes on Payrolls
The Fed's biggest internal split since 2016 still left the rate path frustratingly unclear. Gold has been grinding between $4,000 and $4,200 for weeks, caught between rate expectations, dollar moves, and geopolitical headlines. This week, U.S.-Iran talks and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report could finally give the market something to trade.
HSI Leads the Global Pack: Chinese AI Repricing Drives the Rally, Earnings and Policy Hold the Key
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has led major global benchmarks since late June, with the repricing of Chinese AI assets serving as a key driver. With earnings season approaching, whether AI profitability materializes and how the policy backdrop evolves may prove decisive for whether this rally can be sustained.
Gold Outlook: July FOMC Goes Live — All Eyes on Oil and Warsh
A pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities has pulled oil prices off their highs, but market expectations for a July Fed rate hike have picked up sharply. Gold remains rangebound, caught between shifting geopolitical dynamics and an increasingly uncertain rate path. This week, progress in Middle East talks, the Fed's rate decision, and Warsh's press conference could together determine whether gold can break out of its recent range.
US Q2 Earnings Season: Beyond the Mag 7
The Mag 7 dominates earnings season in the past, but something has shifted. The market is no longer asking whether AI demand is real. It's asking who's winning, who's losing, and how much upside is already priced in.
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1. Data for the Pepperstone Group, correct as at October 2025.