As mentioned, the exit poll, which has a strong track record of accurately predicting the actual election result, pointed to a Labour majority of 170 seats upon its release, forecasting the following in terms of seats:
Interestingly, such a majority, if it were to be borne out, is a touch narrower than most pollsters had been expecting, while also being narrower than the majority won by Tony Blair in his first electoral victory back in 1997. Nonetheless, such a majority is vast, and convincing.
Unsurprisingly, markets were almost unreactive to the exit poll crossing news wires, as polling stations closed. Cable moved a total of 2 pips once the exit poll was released. This lack of volatility in reaction to the news was largely expected, particularly with overnight implied vols having traded at just 10% on election day, pricing (with a 68% degree of confidence) a move of just +/- 60 pips.
Of course, immediate focus, throughout the night, will now turn to whether the exit poll proves correct, as results filter in from constituencies around the UK.
The first results should begin to trickle in around 11:30pm BST, with the biggest wave of results set to come between 2:30am BST and 4:30am BST on Friday. By most estimations, Labour will likely have won enough seats for a parliamentary majority by around 3am BST, with the first remarks from PM Sunak, and Labour leader Starmer, due at their respective counts (presuming they each retain their seats) some time after 4am BST. The transfer of power in the UK is lightning fast, with Starmer likely to be Prime Minister by mid-morning, having been asked by the King to form the next Government.
Assuming that the exit poll does bear close resemblance to the overall result – which should become final some time around 6am BST – focus for market participants will likely turn to the below key near-term drivers of UK assets: