Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • Español
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁体中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Português
  • لغة عربية
  • Formas de operar

    Visión general

    Precios

    Cuentas de trading

    Pro

    Clientes Premium

    Programa Active Trader

    Recomienda a un amigo

    Horario de trading

    Calendario de mantenimiento

  • Plataformas

    Visión general

    Plataformas de trading

    Integraciones

    Herramientas de trading

  • Mercados y símbolos

    Visión general

    Forex

    Acciones

    ETFs

    Indices

    Materias primas

    Índices de divisas

    Dividendos de CFD sobre índices

    Dividendos de CFD sobre acciones

    CFD a plazo

  • Analisis

    Visión general

    Noticias de mercados

    Navegando por los mercados

    Conoce a los analistas

  • Aprender a operar

    Visión general

    Mercado de forex

    Cómo operar con Bitcoin

    Seminarios

  • Partners

  • Sobre nosotros

  • Ayuda y soporte

  • Español
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁体中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Português
  • لغة عربية

Analisis

Understanding PMI Surveys

Michael Brown
Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
7 feb 2024
Share
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI for short) survey is one of the most impactful major economic releases, providing market participants with a timely, and reliable indication of economic activity across a range of economic sectors.

PMIs are released for the majority of major global economies, with separate surveys covering the manufacturing, services, and construction sectors, in addition to an overall composite gauge measuring output across the economy in its entirety. The data is typically collected S&P Global (previously IHS Markit) and released in two tranches on a monthly basis; a ‘flash’ estimate figure released towards the end of the reference month containing responses from around 85% of the survey pool, before a ‘final’ figure is released at the start of the month following the reference month using responses from the full survey pool. Typically, S&P release ‘final’ manufacturing data on the first day of the month, with the services survey following on the third trading day of the month.

In the US, the ISM PMI (which is calculated in the same manner, albeit using a slightly different sample) is the most closely watched gauge. The ISM do not release ‘flash’ estimates, with their release pattern typically following that of the ‘final’ S&P figures.

The PMI is a diffusion index ranging between 0-100, measuring the month-on-month change in economic conditions. Whereby a reading of 50.0 indicates precisely unchanged conditions, a reading above 50.0 suggests an improvement, and a reading below 50.0 suggests a decline in the metric in question. In order to produce the index, the following formula is used:

PMI = ('% reporting improvement') + (0.5 x ‘% reporting unchanged’) + (0.0 * ‘% reporting decrease’)

Note, the PMI figure is a seasonally adjusted metric. It is therefore, technically, and theoretically, possible for the index to read above 100, or below 0. This would require 100% of respondents to report an improvement, or a deterioration, respectively in a given month, and for the seasonal adjustment factor to then push the data beyond one of these boundaries. This is an extremely unlikely, but plausible, scenario.

Furthermore, it is important to consider how PMI surveys should be interpreted:

  • A fall in a PMI gauge from 55.0 to 52.3 represents continued expansion of the sector in question, simply at a slower pace than the month prior
  • A further fall in the PMI from 52.3 to 47.7 would represent that the sector in question is now experiencing a contraction
  • Another fall from 47.7 to 45.6 implies that said contraction is ongoing, and the pace of said contraction has quickened
  • A subsequent rebound in the gauge from 45.6 to 50.0 would imply that the contraction has bottomed out, with activity unchanged compared to the prior month

While it is the headline metric that attracts most attention, and has the most significant impact on financial markets upon release, the PMI surveys released by both S&P Global and the ISM also contain a number of useful sub-indices, the most important of which are:

  • Prices Paid - a measure of inflationary pressures within the sector in question
  • Employment - a gauge showing how overall employment trends are developing, whether hiring is rising, or layoffs are mounting
  • New Orders - a forward looking indicator describing respondents' future purchasing intentions

All of these sub-indices are calculated in the same way as the headline gauge, with 50.0 again representing the breakeven mark between an MoM increase or decrease.


Related articles

Understanding GDP

Understanding GDP

Understanding Retail Sales

Understanding Retail Sales

Understanding Inflation

Understanding Inflation

Understanding The US Labour Market Report

Understanding The US Labour Market Report

Understanding The Business Cycle

Understanding The Business Cycle

Trading Guide
Comprensión de los resultados de subasta del Tesoro.

Comprensión de los resultados de subasta del Tesoro.

Treasuries

Pepperstone no representa que el material proporcionado aquí sea exacto, actual o completo y por lo tanto no debe ser considerado como tal. La información aquí proporcionada, ya sea por un tercero o no, no debe interpretarse como una recomendación, una oferta de compra o venta, la solicitud de una oferta de compra o venta de cualquier valor, producto o instrumento financiero o la recomendación de participar en una estrategia de trading en particular. Recomendamos que todos los lectores de este contenido se informen de forma independiente. La reproducción o redistribución de esta información no está permitida sin la aprobación de Pepperstone.

Otros sitios

  • The Trade Off
  • Partners
  • Grupo
  • Carreras

Formas de operar

  • Precios
  • Cuentas de trading
  • Pro
  • Programa Active Trader
  • Recomienda a un amigo
  • Horario de trading

Plataformas

  • Plataformas de trading
  • Herramientas de trading

Analisis

  • Noticias de mercados
  • Navegando por los mercados
  • Pulso de Pepperstone
  • Conoce a los analistas

Aprender a operar

  • Guías de trading
  • Videos
  • Webinars
Pepperstone logo
support@pepperstone.com
+1786 628 1209+52 55 4163 0281
#1 Pineapple House, Old Fort Bay, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas
  • Documentación legal
  • Política de privacidad
  • Términos y condiciones del sitio web
  • Política sobre cookies

© 2025 Pepperstone Markets Limited | Número de registro de la empresa 177174 B | SIA-F217
Aviso de riesgo: Los CFDs son instrumentos complejos y conllevan un alto riesgo de perder dinero rápidamente debido al apalancamiento. El 81% de las cuentas de inversores minoristas pierden dinero al operar CFDs con este proveedor. Debes considerar si comprendes cómo funcionan los CFDs y si puedes permitirte asumir el alto riesgo de perder tu dinero.No posees ni tienes derechos sobre los activos subyacentes. El rendimiento pasado no es una indicación del rendimiento futuro y las leyes fiscales están sujetas a cambios. La información de este sitio web es de naturaleza general y no tiene en cuenta los objetivos personales, las circunstancias financieras o las necesidades tuyas o de tu cliente. Lee nuestro aviso de riesgo y otros documentos legales y asegúrate de comprender completamente los riesgos antes de tomar cualquier decisión comercial. Te sugerimos buscar asesoramiento independiente.
Pepperstone Markets Limited está ubicada en #1 Pineapple House, Old Fort Bay, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas y está autorizada y regulada por la Comisión de Valores de las Bahamas (SIA-F217).

La información en este sitio y los productos y servicios ofrecidos no están destinados a ser distribuidos a ninguna persona en ningún país o jurisdicción donde dicha distribución o uso sea contrario a las leyes o regulaciones locales.