Las acciones suben y el oro se dispara mientras se avecina un cierre del gobierno

DÓNDE ESTAMOS – Otro día, otro repunte bursátil, y otro máximo histórico para el oro.

I wonder if there’s a way I can automate typing that, given how both of those seem to be daily occurrences at this stage. Maybe I’ll have to embark on some AI capex of my own.

Speaking of repetition, I wish I could compel everyone involved in markets to write out ‘a government shutdown doesn’t really matter’ 100-odd times, given not only how such a shutdown now looms large, but also how almost every tick that any market moves seems to be getting blamed on the upcoming expiry of federal funding.

As a reminder, in the prior 21 US government shutdowns, the S&P has averaged 12 gains and 9 losses, with a median return of +0.1%. Frankly, that’s just noise. Meanwhile, from a macro perspective, each week of a shutdown will likely subtract 0.1pp from GDP that quarter, though the sum total of what was lost will almost certainly be recouped in the very next quarter, once the government re-opens, causing little-to-no net impact overall.

The biggest ‘problem’ during a potential shutdown would be the lack of official data releases, such as Friday’s US jobs report. That said, given the numerous data quality concerns that continue to plague those, and other, federally-issued figures, I fear that plenty of participants are making a mountain out of a molehill on that front, especially when the data in question will drop as soon as funding resumes, and there are numerous private data series that will still be released.

Anyway, the general vibe of trade yesterday was ‘more of the same’, as it has been on so many occasions of late. Once more, precious metals continue to steal the show, not only with gold clearing $3,800/oz for the first time, but with silver, platinum, and palladium joining in on the upside too. It remains, in my mind, tough to bet against any of the four right now, with the bulls not only having momentum on their side, but also a solid fundamental case for further upside amid continued unfunded fiscal largesse across DM, and the lingering risk of inflation expectations un-anchoring from target.

That latter risk stems mainly from the Fed’s ‘run it hot’ approach, though that very same approach is helping to create something of a goldilocks backdrop for risk assets, especially at a time when earnings growth is already robust, and economic growth already solid. While one can’t really claim that a calmer tone on trade continues to prevail, especially with President Trump throwing a 100% tariff on foreign-made films yesterday, markets are becoming increasingly immune to headlines of this ilk, not least considering that many countries had the nous to negotiate carve-outs on these sector-specific tariffs as part of trade deal negotiations.

Most, that is, excluding the UK, in what will go down as yet another economic masterstroke from the dream duo of PM Starmer & Chancellor Reeves. In case it wasn’t obvious, that’s sarcasm, which is far from dead. Irony is also far from dead, it seems, given Chancellor Reeves yesterday noting her aim to keep taxes, inflation, and interest rates “as low as possible”. For those keeping score, she’s currently 0 for 3 on that front. Short GBP, and short long-end Gilts, remain my preferred plays into the end-November Budget.

Despite that, the quid did actually firm a bit yesterday, though this move seemed to stem more from rather broad-based USD weakness, amid EoM/Q flows, as opposed to any surge in optimism around the state of the UK economy. Still, though the buck faced headwinds yesterday, with this move being largely flow-driven, it’s one that I’m inclined to fade, at least once the month does draw to a close today, with the bull case for the buck still looking promising as risks to the outlook tilt to the upside, not only as the Fed lean in hard to support growth, but also as fiscal tailwinds mount. Dollar dips are there to be bought into, in my mind.

ADELANTE – Bastante por digerir hoy en la agenda de datos para los participantes.

Comenzamos aquí en el Reino Unido esta mañana, con la lectura final del PIB del segundo trimestre que, aunque ya algo obsoleta, se mantendrá sin revisión, apuntando a un crecimiento del 0,3 % trimestral en los tres meses hasta junio. Sin embargo, dados los crecientes riesgos a la baja, bien podría ser lo mejor que consiga la economía británica este año.

Más adelante, esta tarde no solo trae las cifras de inflación “flash” de Alemania, previas al dato de IPC de toda la eurozona de mañana, sino también una gran cantidad de publicaciones en EE. UU. Es probable que la última encuesta PMI de Chicago sea pasada por alto por los participantes del mercado, con mayor atención puesta en el índice de confianza del consumidor del Conference Board de este mes (exp. 96,0 vs. 97,4 previo), y en el informe de vacantes de empleo JOLTS del mes pasado (exp. 7,20 millones vs. 7,18 millones previo), siendo este último posiblemente el último dato laboral “oficial” que recibamos de EE. UU. durante un tiempo, dado que la financiación federal expira el miércoles a medianoche (hora ET).

En otros lugares, se espera una agenda ocupada de discursos de bancos centrales, destacando (por decirlo de alguna manera) a la presidenta del BCE, Lagarde, y al vicepresidente de la Fed, Jefferson, aunque es poco probable que ninguno de los dos ofrezca muchos comentarios nuevos sobre las perspectivas de política monetaria. Por último, en el frente corporativo, Nike Just Do It y publicará sus resultados tras el cierre de hoy.