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US Earnings Equities

Week Of 29th April – Notable Upcoming Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
2024年4月27日
The week ahead is another busy one for corporate reports, being the busiest of Q1 earnings season in terms of the number of S&P 500 companies releasing results. Some of the most notable (excluding the ‘Magnificent Seven’) upcoming reports are previewed, by the numbers, in this note.

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY, 11:40am BST/6:40am ET, 30th April):

LLY sits just over 25% higher YTD, the 4th best performing healthcare stock in the S&P 500 in 2024, while also being within the top 25 best performing stocks in the index at large. A giant in terms of index weightings, LLY is the 9th largest stock in the benchmark US index, with around a 1.4% index weight. Derivatives, over earnings, with a 68.2% degree of confidence, imply a move of +/- 4.9%, in the 24 hours following the release. Recent earnings performance has been somewhat mixed, with LLY only convincingly beating consensus EPS expectations three times since Q1 22, with the stock also having ended the day of earnings in the red on four of the last eight occasions. This time around, for Q1 24, the Street expects quarterly EPS at $2.46, on revenues of $8.92bln.

Preview

Coca-Cola Co (KO, 11:55am BST/6:55am ET, 30th April):

KO trades around 5% higher YTD, marginally underperforming both the S&P 500 as a whole, and the consumer staples sector. The stock stands as the 30th largest in the S&P by weighting, while also being a Dow constituent, with a weight just over 1% in the price-weighted index. Over earnings, options imply a relatively modest move of +/- 1.85% in the 24 hours following the figures being released. In terms of pedigree, KO has beat consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q4 19, though post-earnings performance has been mixed of late, with the stock ending the day of earnings in the red following three of the last five reports. For Q1 24, consensus expects quarterly EPS of $0.70, on revenues of around $11bln.

Preview

McDonald’s Corp (MCD, 12pm BST/7am ET, 30th April):

The fast-food giant has traded poorly this year, with losses of around 7.9% YTD, underperforming both the benchmark S&P 500, and the consumer discretionary sector, which trades roughly flat on the year. In terms of weightings, the stock is the 36th largest in the S&P 500, while also being the 6th largest constituent in the Dow, with a 4.75% weight in the price-weighted index. Options imply a move of +/- 2.5% in the stock during the 24 hours following the earnings release, with MCD having sold off following three of the last five quarterly reports, despite EPS having beaten consensus expectations in every quarter since Q1 22. This time around, consensus sees quarterly EPS at $2.72, and revenues just over $6.1bln.

Preview

Super Micro Computer (SMCI, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 30th April):

SMCI trade as the best performer in the S&P 500 YTD, sitting around 200% higher since the turn of the year, albeit while trading around 30% below the early-March highs, just shy of $1,200. While holding an incredibly modest 0.1% weight in the index, options do price a significant move in the stock in the 24 hours following earnings, seeing +/- 12.7%, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. Recent post-earnings performance has been mixed, with the last four quarterly reports seeing an equal split of post-results gains and losses, despite the stock having beaten consensus EPS expectations, and surprised to the upside with guidance, on the last three consecutive occasions. For Q1 24, quarterly EPS is expected at $5.84, with revenues of just under $4bln.

Preview

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD, 9:15pm BST/4:15pm ET, 30th April):

AMD has traded, roughly, in line with the S&P 500 this year, sitting just under 7% higher YTD, albeit marginally underperforming the information technology sector to which the stock belongs. In any case, AMD stands as the 27th largest stock in the benchmark index, while also being the 11th largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a weighting of around 1.85% in the tech-heavy index. Over earnings, options price a move of +/- 7.5%, with the stock having lost ground following three of the last four quarterly reports, and with Q4 23 marking AMD’s first downside surprise compared to consensus EPS expectations since Q3 19. For Q1 24, consensus sees EPS at $0.61, on quarterly revenues of $5.46bln.

Preview

Pfizer (PFE, 11:45am BST/6:45am ET, 1st May):

Pfizer’s performance has been relatively soft this year, trading around 12% lower YTD, underperforming both the healthcare sector, and the S&P 500 more broadly. The stock stands as the 58th largest in the S&P 500, with an index weight around 0.35%. In the 24 hours following the quarterly report, options price a move of +/- 3.65% in the stock, which has fallen following three of the last four said reports, having traded flat on the other occasion, despite having consistently beaten consensus EPS expectations since Q1 21. This time around, consensus sees quarterly EPS at $0.52, on quarterly revenues of around $14bln.

Preview

Mastercard (MA, 1pm BST/8am ET, 1st May):

MA trades just shy of 8.5% higher YTD, marginally outperforming the S&P 500, but trading broadly in line with the 8.3% gain seen in the financials sector since the turn of the year. The stock stands as the 17th largest in the S&P 500, with just shy of a 1% index weight, roughly equivalent to that of rival Visa. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/- 3.2%, though the stock has ended the day of reporting in negative territory on four of the last six occasions, despite not having missed EPS expectations since the third quarter of 2020. For Q1 24, the Street expects quarterly EPS at $3.23, with revenues of $6.34bln.

Preview

Qualcomm (QCOM, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 1st May):

The chipmaker trades just shy of 15% higher YTD, outperforming both the S&P 500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, while standing as the 18th largest stock by weight in the latter index. Derivatives price a sizeable move of +/- 6.4% in the stock in the 24 hours following the earnings release. Recent post-report form has been poor, with the stock rallying just twice out of the last 8 occasions, despite having beaten consensus EPS expectations in every report for the last decade, and having also consistently surprised to the upside with guidance. This quarter, consensus models quarterly EPS of $2.32, on revenues of $9.34bln.

Preview

Amgen (AMGN, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 2nd May):

Biotech firm Amgen trades around 6% lower since the turn of the year, underperforming the S&P 500, and the healthcare sector, which has traded flat this year. Nevertheless, AMGN remains the 9th largest stock in the price-weighted Dow, with a weight of around 4.65%, while also being the 56th largest in the S&P 500, and 23rd largest in the Nasdaq 100. Options imply a move of +/- 4.2% in the stock in the 24 hours following earnings, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. Recent post-earnings performance has been poor, with the stock being sold-off following 6 of the last 8 quarterly reports. For Q1 24, consensus expects quarterly EPS of $3.87, on revenues of $7.44bln.

Preview

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B, 1pm BST, 8am ET, Saturday 4th May):

Buffett’s Berkshire trade around 12.7% higher YTD, with the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ again outperforming the benchmark S&P 500, of which BRK/B is the 8th largest stock in the index by weight. An implied move over the earnings print is unavailable as, as usual, Berkshire will report on a Saturday. Nevertheless, the stock has traded lower on the Monday morning following the last two quarterly reports in a row. For Q1 24, consensus expects a quarterly EPS print of $4.58, on revenues of $85.9bln.

Preview

Note – all figures in this article are correct as of 27th April 2024; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

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