Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • 中文版
  • English
  • 交易方式

    概览

    定价

    交易账户

    Pro

    高净值客户

    好友推荐计划

    活跃交易者计划

    交易时间

    维护计划

  • 交易平台

    概述

    交易平台

    集成

    交易工具

  • 市场与产品

    概述

    外汇

    股票

    交易所交易基金

    指数

    大宗商品

    货币指数

    指数差价合约股息

    股票差价合约股息

    差价合约远期

  • 市场分析

    概述

    市场导航

    每日简报

    会见分析师

  • 学习交易

    概述

    交易指南

    网络研讨会

  • 合作伙伴

  • 关于我们

  • 帮助和支持

  • 中文版
  • English
  • 开启 Webtrader

  • 交易方式

  • 交易平台

  • 市场与产品

  • 市场分析

  • 学习交易

  • 合作伙伴

  • 关于我们

  • 帮助和支持

RBA
AUD

RBA surprise and China uplift: The (almost) AUD nirvana backdrop

Chris Weston
Chris Weston
首席分析师
2023年6月7日
Share
The RBA has now ‘surprised’ the market with 2 back-to-back rate hikes, which were both priced at a 30% probability or below. Essentially, the RBA has injected a level of policy uncertainty greater than any other G10 central bank.

We also see its hawkish forward guidance maintained with “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, the question is how much pain the Aussie economy must endure before demand is sufficiently impacted to put inflation firmly on the path to the target. 

AUD supported by a confluence of factors

One of the beneficiaries of the RBAs hawkish guidance is the AUD, and it’s been on a roll – where the fundamentals have offered an almost perfect storm for AUD appreciation.

We’ve seen iron ore futures +17% since the 26 May lows, and copper has lifted from $3.54p/lb. to $3.77 p/lb. The HK50 index was in a bear market but has now rallied 7% off the lows. A reversal and a stronger yuan would have been helpful (for AUD longs), but we’ve seen USDCNH pushing higher and looking for a break of 7.1500. 

On the rates front, we see interest rate differentials also a factor in AUD appreciation. While we can see some uplift in market expectations for the immediate months ahead, it’s the aggression by which the market has repriced cuts over the next two years that have really hit home. 

Looking at the pricing of 2-year forward rates, we see that while expectations of near-term hikes have increased, it’s the level of expected rate cuts that have been more aggressively priced out of the Aussie rates market that has been at play. 

For example, on 26 April, the central case of the market was that the RBAs cash rate would be 128bp (5 cuts) lower this time in 2 years. The re-pricing has taken the level of expected cuts over the next 2 years to just 34bp.

Preview

Rate cuts have also been walked back in other G10 countries, as we see below. However, when we contrast Aus 2yr forward rates to that of USD, EUR, NZD, and GBP (see below - in order), we see just how aggressive this move has been on a relative basis. This has proven to be a real tailwind for the AUD.

Preview

Moves in ASX200 equity; Shorting banks has worked well

If the move-in rates are a tailwind for the AUD, it has been problematic and a sizeable headwind for the interest rate-sensitive parts of the Australian equity market. 

Shorting Aussie banks have worked well really since early February, where competition has had to intensify to attract deposits, while higher funding costs have promoted a war on mortgage pricing. Consequently, net interest margins are to decline, and Westpac has already stated they have seen a rise in 30-day delinquencies.

While would-be buyers step away, the speculative fraction of market participants senses this and gets more traction shorting equities that are bear trending. Traders can operate banks tactically, either as part of a long/short approach or as an outright directional trade against lower net interest margins and earnings. 

What comes next? Are rates still too low?

With the market now having discounted much of the expected future RBA policy setting, the question is what happens next for RBA policy. Can we reach a point where the market fully prices out cuts for the coming 2 years altogether? 

Preview

Shorter-term, with 8bp of hikes priced for the July RBA meeting (a 32% chance of a hike), is this again priced too low? We see the peak RBA cash rate expectations of 4.34% by September; should this be priced closer to 4.6%, maybe even 5%?

To answer this, we will watch a combination of broad financial conditions, global economic trends, domestic auction clearance rates and anecdotes on credit demand. However, of the known data points, we look for:

  • 13 June Westpac consumer confidence / NAB business confidence. 
  • 15 June - May employment report
  • 28 June – May CPI report
  • 29 June – Retail sales 
  • 3 July CoreLogic House price index
  • 4 July – RBA meeting
  • 26 July – Q2 CPI 
  • 15 August – Wage Price Index 

For now, especially on the higher timeframes, the wind is to the AUD's back, and we see key technical breakouts vs GBP, EUR, and JPY, with AUDNZD having been on a one-way rampage. AUDCHF is eyeing a break of its range higher, having rallied from 0.5867, where a daily close could set the pair on for the double-bottom target of 0.6230. 

The time for shorting the AUD (on the higher timeframes) will come soon enough, but until China turns lower and rates look fully priced, the skew in risk that for more upside in the AUD.


Related articles

A Trader's Playbook: China Stimulus Expectations Lift Sentiment

RBA
FOMC
USD

热门文章

1

QT还是QE?美股反弹还能走多远

2

深陷泥潭!平价或许只是欧元下跌的起点

3

原油势如破竹 今年累计涨幅逼近50%

4

颤抖吧!华尔街!

此处提供的材料并未按照旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求进行准备,因此被视为营销沟通。虽然它并不受到在投资研究传播之前进行交易的任何禁令,但我们不会在向客户提供信息之前谋求任何优势。

Pepperstone并不保证此处提供的材料准确、及时或完整,因此不应依赖于此。无论是来自第三方还是其他来源的信息,都不应被视为建议;或者购买或出售的要约;或是购买或出售任何证券、金融产品或工具的征求;或是参与任何特定交易策略。它并未考虑读者的财务状况或投资目标。我们建议此内容的读者寻求自己的建议。未经Pepperstone批准,不得复制或重新分发此信息。

其他网站.

  • The Trade Off
  • 合作伙伴
  • 组.
  • 职业生涯

交易方式

  • 定价
  • 交易账户
  • Pro
  • 高净值客户
  • 活跃交易者计划
  • 朋友推荐
  • 交易时间

平台

  • 交易平台
  • 交易工具

市场与符号

  • 外汇
  • 股票
  • 交易所交易基金
  • 指数
  • 大宗商品
  • 货币指数
  • 加密货币
  • 差价合约远期

分析

  • 市场导航
  • 每日简报
  • 会见分析师

学习交易

  • 交易指南
  • 视频
  • 在线讲座
Pepperstone logo
support@pepperstone.com
1300 033 375
Level 16, Tower One, 727 Collins Street
墨尔本, VIC 澳大利亚 3008
  • 法律文件
  • 隐私政策
  • 网站条款与条件
  • Cookie政策
  • 举报人政策

风险警告:差价合约(CFD)是复杂的工具,由于杠杆作用,存在快速亏损的高风险。 81.3% 的散户投资者在于该提供商进行差价合约交易时账户亏损。您应该考虑自己是否了解差价合约的工作原理,以及是否有承受资金损失的高风险的能力

风险警告:差价合约和外汇交易是有风险的。它不适合每个人,如果你是一个专业客户,你的损失可能大大超过你的初始投资。你并不拥有相关资产或对其拥有权利。过去的业绩并不代表未来的业绩,而且税法可能会改变。本网站上的信息是一般性的,没有考虑到你的个人目标、财务状况或需求。你应该通过审查我们的目标市场的确定文件来考虑你是否属于我们的目标市场,并阅读我们的PDS和其他法律文件,以确保你在做出任何交易决定之前充分了解风险。我们鼓励你在必要时寻求独立建议。

Pepperstone Group Limited位于澳大利亚维多利亚州墨尔本柯林斯街727号第一座16楼,邮编VIC 3008,并由澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(Australian Securities and Investments Commission)许可和监管。 本网站上的信息以及所提供的产品和服务均不得分发给任何国家或地区(如果其分发或使用违反当地法律或法规)的任何人。

© 2025 Pepperstone Group Limited | 澳大利亚公司注册号 (ACN) 147 055 703 | 澳大利亚金融服务牌照号(AFSL) 414530