US Earnings Equities

Q1 24 ‘Magnificent Seven’ Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
2024年4月20日
While the performance of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ has diverged substantially this year, this group of 7 stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA & TSLA) remain some of the most significant, in terms of index weightings, and impact on broader market sentiment.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 23 Apr):

TSLA trades as the 2nd worst performing stock in the S&P 500 YTD, having fallen just over 40% in the first four months of the year. The stock stands as the 15th largest in the index, with a 1% weighting, and as the 10th largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a weighting around 2%. Options imply a move of +/-8% in the 24 hours following the earnings release. TSLA has surprised to the downside of consensus EPS expectations for two consecutive quarters, while the stock has ended the day in the red following the last four quarterly reports in a row. Consensus sees quarterly adjusted diluted EPS at $0.59, and quarterly revenues of $23.34bln.

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Meta Platforms (META, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 24 Apr):

META trade with a gain of just over 35% YTD, standing as the 5th best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, and the 3rd best performer in the Nasdaq 100. In terms of index weightings, META is the 5th largest stock in each, with an weight of 2.6% and 5.1% respectively. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/-8.4% in the day after the release. The stock’s recent earnings pedigree is strong, having beaten quarterly EPS expectations for four quarters in a row, and having ended the day after earnings in positive territory on three of those occasions. In Q1 24, consensus expects diluted EPS at $4.34, and quarterly revenues of $36.16bln.

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Alphabet (GOOGL, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 25 Apr):

GOOGL trades around 10% higher YTD, roughly double the advance seen in the S&P 500, with the index having recently endured a geopolitically-induced pullback from record highs. Combining the listings of both A and C share classes, Alphabet has a weighting of approx.. 4% in the S&P, and just over 5% in the Nasdaq 100. Derivatives imply a move of +/-5.2% in GOOGL over the earnings report, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. While the company has beaten quarterly EPS expectations for the last 4 consecutive quarters, post-earnings performance has been more of a mixed bag, having ended the day following earnings lower on 6 of the last 8 occasions. This time around, for Q1 24, consensus see a diluted EPS of $1.53, and quarterly revenues just north of $79bln.

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Microsoft (MSFT, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 25 Apr):

MSFT stands as the largest stock by weight in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, with a 7% and 8.9% weight in each index respectively, while also being the 2nd largest constituent in the Dow, with a 7% weight in the price-weighted index. The stock trades around 6% higher YTD, roughly in the middle of the pack of all S&P 500 members. Over earnings, options price a relatively modest move of +/-4% in the 24 hours following the report. Recent pedigree has been strong, with MSFT having only missed consensus quarterly EPS expectations in one quarter since Q1 17, though post-earnings performance has been patchier, with the stock having declined following four of the six quarterly reports since Q1 23. In terms of expectations, consensus looks for an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.83, and quarterly revenue just under $60.9bln.

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Amazon (AMZN, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 30 Apr):

AMZN trades with a gain of just under 15% since the turn of the year, being the 8th best performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 in 2024. In terms of index weighting, AMZN represents the 4th largest constituent of the S&P 500, with a 3.9%, while also being the 4th largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a 5.5% weight. Amazon is also a member of the Dow, being the 15th largest stock in the index. Options contracts price a move of +/-6.4% in the 24 hours following the earnings report, with one standard deviation of confidence. AMZN has surprised to the upside of quarterly EPS expectations for the last five consecutive quarters, while the stock has ended the day following earnings in positive territory following the last three reports. Consensus, for Q1 24, sees diluted EPS at $0.83, with quarterly revenues expected at $142.58bln.

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Apple (AAPL, 9:30pm BST/4:30pm ET, 2 May):

Apple has traded poorly this year, with the stock sitting around 15% lower YTD, amid continuing concerns about flagging product demand, particularly in China. Nevertheless, AAPL remains the 2nd largest stock by weight in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while also being a Dow constituent, with a weight just shy of 3% in the latter index. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/-3.7%. Recent reports have seen consistent beats compared to consensus EPS expectations, with just one downside surprise since Q1 22, though have also seen a much more mixed price reaction, with AAPL ending the day after earnings in negative territory following each of the last 3 reports. For Q1 24, consensus sees quarterly EPS at $1.50, and quarterly revenues just shy of $90.3bln.

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Nvidia (NVDA, 9:20pm BST/4:20pm ET, 22 May):

NVDA, despite pulling back in recent weeks, continues to trade over 50% higher YTD, representing the 3rd best performer in the S&P 500, and the 2nd best in the Nasdaq 100. From a weightings perspective, Nvidia is the 3rd largest in the S&P 500, with a 5% weight, while also being the 3rd largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a marginally larger 6.2% weight. Over the 24 hours following earnings, options imply a move of +/-10.4% in the stock, representing a potential swing of around $200bln in NVDA’s market cap. The company has consistently beaten quarterly EPS estimates of late, with just one downside surprise compared to consensus since Q1 20. Post-earnings performance has also been strong, with the stock rallying in the day following quarterly earnings on four of the last five occasions. This time around, consensus sees adjusted diluted EPS at $5.50, on quarterly revenues of $24.16bln.

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Note – all figures in this article are correct as of 20th April 2024; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

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