Gold Surges Towards $3400 as US Dollar Falls – Is a New Bull Trend Underway?

Client volumes on gold have picked up over the past 24-36 hours, with XAUUSD holding the top spot as the most traded market. The upbeat flows through the market have seen spot gold emphatically breakout of the of $3370 to $3300 trading range it has held since early July, with front-month gold futures settling firmly above $3400 and holding the big figure through Asia.

In reaction to the break in CME gold futures, Chinese traders have shown strong restrain in chasing the move higher, and there has been limited activity in either Shanghai gold futures or the respective Chinese gold ETFs – China recently made it a national past time to back up the truck on long gold exposures, but the recent flows indicate that both retail and institutional traders have migrated elsewhere, or are just not seeing the risk-to-reward trade-off overly compelling at current levels - maybe that will change if we were to see the upside momentum kick up, or conversely a wash-out of longs and a subsequent pullback would offer a more attractive entry point – we shall see, but we know that many in the region are drawn to trade any market that is moving higher, pushing new highs and backed by a high rate of change.

For now, the gold market takes its steer from the USD, and as we approach the 1 Aug tariff implantation date, and the risk of an early shadow Fed chair nominee and renewed central bank policy divergence, USD rallies should remain capped and possibly accelerate the USD hedging flows from real money foreign investors. A downside break of 97.65 and 97.00 (in the USD Index) could be the trigger for a closing break of $3431 and new closing highs.

Good luck to all.