Trading the Week Ahead: Oil, USD Strength and Rising Drawdown Risk in the S&P 500
Markets enter a volatile week with oil driving cross-asset moves. Traders watch escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed decision, RBA meeting, private credit stress, and rising equity correlations.
January 2026 UK GDP: Downside Surprise As Geopolitics Clouds The Outlook
This morning's UK GDP data pointed to the economy having stagnated as the year got underway.
US Dollar Strength Builds as Inflation and Oil Risks Reprice Fed Expectations
The US dollar is gaining momentum as oil prices surge and inflation expectations rise. Markets are repricing Fed rate cuts, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar index is testing key resistance near 100.
March 2026 BoE Preview: Cuts Postponed
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, amid elevated uncertainty owing to the present geopolitical backdrop, with the subsequent commodity price shock presenting a significant upside inflation risk in the near-term. Still, policymakers are ultimately likely to view said shock as temporary in nature, leaving further rate cuts on the cards as the year goes on.
February 2026 US CPI: Before The Energy Shock
February’s US CPI report sprang nothing by way of surprises, though matters not one bit to markets, or the FOMC, with attention now falling squarely on the upside inflation risks posed by the ongoing energy price shock amid conflict in the Middle East.
March 2026 ECB Preview: Looking Through The Energy Shock
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council are set to hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, looking-through the energy price shock for now, even with the inflation profile likely to be revised notably higher in the updated economic projections.
Oil Market Volatility Crisis: Have We Passed the Peak of the Energy Shock?
Oil markets experienced one of the most dramatic volatility shocks in years as Brent surged to $119 and options volatility exploded. We assess whether markets are stabilising and what traders should watch next.
March 2026 FOMC Preview: Powell On Pause In Penultimate Meeting
The FOMC are set to stand pat at the March meeting, not only in light of having adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach at the first confab of the year, but also as a huge degree of uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook, after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent energy price shock, which tilts near-term inflation risks to the upside.
Crude Surges Amid Risk Rout With Geopolitics In Focus
Energy markets are driving cross-asset price action as Hormuz disruption pushes crude above $100/bbl, lifting inflation expectations and weighing on risk assets.
February 2026 US Employment Report: A Huge Downside Surprise
The February US jobs report pointed to payrolls having unexpectedly declined last month, and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The FOMC, however, are unlikely to over-react to the data, given one-off factors skewing the payrolls print lower, and the fog of uncertainty caused by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
China Lowers 2026 GDP Target: Policy Focus Shifts to Structural Upgrades and Market Repricing
China sets 2026 GDP target at 4.5%–5%, emphasizing structural upgrades, tech innovation, and boosting domestic demand. Short-term market volatility is manageable, but policy execution, property sector pressures, and external risks warrant attention.
Crude Oil Volatility Highest Since 2022 as Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Market Uncertainty
Energy markets are experiencing extreme volatility as Middle East tensions disrupt supply routes and infrastructure. Brent crude implied volatility is at its highest since 2022, with analysts modeling scenarios ranging from $60 to $120 depending on supply disruptions.
‘Buy America’ Returns As Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Upside
Geopolitical risk has fuelled renewed haven demand for the dollar, which has proved the only shelter for market participants amid recent turmoil.
KOSPI & Nikkei Plunge: Concentrated Bulls and Elevated Energy Drive Sell-Off
Heightened Middle East tensions combined with soaring energy prices have triggered sharp declines across Asian stock indices. KOSPI and the Nikkei have both retraced more than 10% from their late-February highs. Concentrated bullish positions and simultaneous equity-currency pressures have intensified selling, keeping risk management top of mind for traders in the near term.
Market Narratives Diverge As Commodity Shock Triggers Broad De-Risking
Geopolitical tensions have led participants to seek havens, while an energy price shock sees STIRs and Govvies reprice hawkishly, amid signs sentiment may be nearing an extreme.
Preview For The February 2026 Jobs Report
Though geopolitical events are presently dominating the narrative, the first Friday of the month will still see the release of the latest US labour market report. The data, however, is unlikely to materially move the needle for the FOMC, who are set to remain in ‘wait and see’ mode for the time being.
US Dollar Breakout: Safe Haven Flows, Rising Yields and America’s Energy Edge Drive USD Buying
The US dollar outperforms G10 currencies as oil prices rise and geopolitical tensions escalate. Discover how safe haven flows, higher Treasury yields and America’s energy dominance are driving USD strength.
Geopolitical Events Dominate The Narrative: Energy & Off Ramps The Key Areas To Watch
Markets have reverted to the classic risk-off playbook as Middle East hostilities continue, with focus on oil supply and de-escalation risks.