Local Elections Fallout Sees UK Assets Face Up To Fractured Political Future
Labour’s dire local election results have weakened PM Starmer politically, but for now markets appear relieved that an immediate leadership challenge remains unlikely.
April 2026 US Employment Report: Solid Payrolls Print Keeps Fed In ‘Wait & See’ Mode
Headline nonfarm payrolls again topped expectations in April, though the Household Survey was somewhat softer. Regardless, the Fed will remain in ‘wait and see’ mode for the time being, with the inflation side of the mandate continuing to take priority.
Equity Rally Rolls On With Pain Trade Remaining Higher
Risk appetite has roared back as signs of a potential US-Iran agreement spark another leg higher for equities, though the ‘pain trade’ remains higher for now.
JPY Surges Again Amid Further Intervention Speculation
Another sudden round of JPY strength has sparked speculation that the MoF have intervened in the market yet again, though despite these efforts to prop up the currency continuing, they remain unlikely to change the longer-run trend, absent a change in the fundamental backdrop.
UK Markets Turn Attention To Local Elections
Attention for UK assets is increasingly turning to this week’s local elections, as PM Starmer faces a pivotal test at the ballot box, which could lead to a Labour leadership challenge, and renewed downside risks for the GBP and Gilts.
Preview For The April 2026 US Jobs Report
This Friday brings our latest update on the state of the US labour market, which has remained mired in a ‘no fire, no hire’ dynamic for some time now. While the figures are unlikely to materially impact the near-term Fed policy outlook, which hinges largely on geopolitical events, the report will nonetheless warrant close attention, especially if any signs of economic uncertainty denting labour demand begin to emerge.
Gold Outlook: Geopolitical Tailwinds Fading, Nonfarm Payrolls Could Be the Deciding Factor
Gold remains rangebound and tilted to the downside, as geopolitical tailwinds gradually lose their potency and interest rate headwinds persist. This week, markets will closely watch the U.S. ISM Services PMI and the nonfarm payrolls report — both could prove pivotal in determining gold's next directional move.
Trading the Week Ahead: Key Risks, Data and Market Levels to Watch
A detailed trading outlook for the week ahead, covering FX, equities, crude oil, central bank decisions, key data releases and technical levels shaping global markets.
JPY Jumps As ‘Yentervention’ Returns
The JPY has surged over the last couple of sessions as the MoF appear to have finally stepped in to prop up the currency, tilting the risk-reward drastically against JPY bears in the short-term, albeit while being unlikely to change the longer-run trend.
Apple Q2 26 Earnings Review: Record Quarter, but Growth Quality Under Scrutiny
Apple’s Q2 FY26 earnings beat estimates with strong guidance, but rising costs and leadership uncertainty put Apple’s growth quality under scrutiny.
April 2026 ECB Review: Staying On Hold
The ECB, as expected, stood pat at the April meeting, reiterating a ‘data-dependent’ approach to policy moving forward.
April 2026 BoE Review: Standing Pat For Now
The Bank of England stood pat at the April meeting, holding Bank Rate steady, albeit via a split decision, with Chief Economist Pill dissenting in favour of a 25bp hike. Policy guidance was little changed, while the various scenarios outlining how the economy may evolve are too disparate to provide any signal at all.
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Microsoft Q1 26 Earnings Review: A Clean Beat, but Profitability Draws Scrutiny
Microsoft Q1 beats across the board with Azure reaccelerating to 40% and Copilot adding a record 5 million paid seats — but weaker margin guidance, a sharply higher capex outlook, and a loosening OpenAI tie-up are keeping the bulls honest.
April 2026 FOMC Review: Jay’s Last Hurrah
The FOMC stood pat, as expected, at the April meeting, with policy guidance unchanged, as Chair Powell prepares to pass the baton to Kevin Warsh, though the prospect of easing remains on the cards later this year, dependent on how geopolitical events evolve.
UAE Quits OPEC - Quick Thoughts
The UAE's decision to quit OPEC/OPEC+ is a major event for global energy markets in the long-run, but one that is likely to have little by way of major short-term implications, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining impassable.
Nikkei 225 Hits Record High: Strong AI Momentum, Three Key Risks to Watch
The Nikkei 225's break above 60,000 to a record high reflects the convergence of the AI capex cycle, a weak yen environment, and sustained foreign inflows. Yet at these elevated levels, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, yen volatility, and upcoming US tech earnings reports represent key uncertainties that could determine whether the rally has legs.
Warsh’s Balance Sheet Views Make Rate Cuts A ‘Need’ Not A ‘Want’
Kevin Warsh’s desire to shrink, and tidy up, the Fed’s balance sheet can work; however, enacting those shifts will necessitate a lower fed funds rate, in order to maintain the overall policy stance. Convincing his new colleagues of this view, though, could prove challenging.
Gold Outlook: Geopolitical Deadlock Caps Trend, Two Key Risks in Focus
Repeated geopolitical headlines keep gold range-bound. This week, markets are focused on developments in US–Iran negotiations and major central bank meetings, including the FOMC. In the near term, price action is likely to remain driven by shifts in inflation expectations and the interest rate outlook.