Warsh’s Balance Sheet Views Make Rate Cuts A ‘Need’ Not A ‘Want’
Kevin Warsh’s desire to shrink, and tidy up, the Fed’s balance sheet can work; however, enacting those shifts will necessitate a lower fed funds rate, in order to maintain the overall policy stance. Convincing his new colleagues of this view, though, could prove challenging.
Gold Outlook: Geopolitical Deadlock Caps Trend, Two Key Risks in Focus
Repeated geopolitical headlines keep gold range-bound. This week, markets are focused on developments in US–Iran negotiations and major central bank meetings, including the FOMC. In the near term, price action is likely to remain driven by shifts in inflation expectations and the interest rate outlook.
A Trader’s Weekly Playbook: Mega Cap Earnings, Central Banks and Australian CPI
Traders face a heavy week of market-moving events including mega cap tech earnings, central bank meetings and Australian CPI. Key risks and opportunities across equities, FX and commodities.
It’s Not Only Geopolitical Hopes Driving The Equity Rally
While many see geopolitical hopes as the sole driver of recent equity gains, the positive catalysts are in reality more numerous, as AI enthusiasm returns, and earnings season progresses in solid fashion.
Meta Q1 2026 Earnings: Revenue Growth Through Accelerated AI Training
Ahead of the Q1 2026 earnings release, Meta Platforms is entering a phase where AI investments are expected to translate into revenue acceleration. With capital expenditure rising and AI integration deepening across operations, even into granular aspects of employee workflows, the focus is more toward execution efficiency, model output quality, margins and cash flow growth.
Stocks Aside, Markets Are Going Nowhere Fast
While equities print record highs, markets elsewhere are trading in much more turgid fashion, as participants hunt for the next tradeable theme, amid mounting expectations for a deal to end conflict in the Middle East.
Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Review: Beat on Numbers, Growth Under Pressure
Tesla’s Q1 results show an upside surprise in profitability and cash flow recovery, but slowing vehicle delivery, rising inventory, and a significant upward revision in AI and robotics capex have reignited concerns over its growth trajectory and valuation re-rating.
Oil consolidates at highs: Escalation concerns give way to time premium pricing
US–Iran talks remain deadlocked, while oil trades at elevated levels. Pricing is gradually shifting from headline-driven geopolitics toward a time-premium and supply–demand framework. Markets are now focused on US substitution capacity, early signs of demand erosion, and tail-risk scenarios that could disrupt the current balance.
Amazon Q1 2026 Earnings Outlook: Betting on AI Investment for Sustainable Profit Growth
Amazon’s Q1 2026 report, a juncture where the company’s ability to translate an aggressive, AI-driven capital expenditure cycle and continued cloud expansion into durable revenue growth and margin improvement is being put to the test.
April 2026 BoE Preview: The Old Lady Set To Stay On Hold
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee are set to stand pat once more at the April meeting, maintaining all policy settings, and continuing with a ‘wait and see’ approach in light of the fluid economic outlook, amid the recent surge in energy prices, and conflict in the Middle East.
March 2026 UK Inflation: The Energy Shock Starts To Arrive
Today's UK inflation figures gave the first indication of how the recent surge in energy prices is beginning to impact the UK economy.
Warsh's Nomination Hearing Augurs For A Risk-Friendly Fed
Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination hearing has helped flesh out expectations for how he may helm the world's most important central bank, and cemented a view that a risk-friendly Fed will remain.
April 2026 ECB Preview: Waiting For More Information
The ECB will likely stand pat at the conclusion of the April meeting, as the Governing Council continue to seek further data on the macroeconomic impact of conflict in the Middle East. While explicit guidance towards policy tightening is unlikely, a significant debate on that issue, at the next meeting in June, seems somewhat inevitable.
February 2026 UK Jobs Report: A Mixed Bag
This morning's UK labour market report pointed to a mixed employment picture in February.
A Virtuous Cycle For Equities May Be A Vicious One For Labour
Record equity highs continue to diverge from softer economic fundamentals, with rising productivity, limited labour cost growth, and sustained buybacks driving a virtuous cycle for stocks, while reinforcing a more fragile, increasingly K-shaped economic backdrop.
Gold Outlook: Repeated Geopolitical Swings Keep Gold Awaiting a Breakout
Gold remains range-bound at elevated levels amid shifting expectations around geopolitical risks and Fed’s policy path. Traders are closely watching shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, the expiration of the ceasefire agreement, and incoming US economic data, while awaiting a key breakout signal in the $4,850–$4,900 range.
April 2026 FOMC Preview: Still In ‘Wait & See’ Mode As Powell’s Departure Nears
The FOMC are set to hold all policy settings steady at the conclusion of the April meeting, remaining in ‘wait and see’ mode amid a fragile labour market backdrop, and an uncertain inflationary outlook as a result of conflict in the Middle East.
Netflix Q1 26 Earnings Review: Solid Results, Weak Guidance, Valuation Enters Repricing
Netflix Q1 2026 revenue and earnings beat expectations, although EPS was largely driven by one-off gains. Softer Q2 guidance and no full-year upgrade are prompting a reassessment of growth momentum, weighing on the stock in after-hours trading.