Q4 25 US Bank Earnings Review: Strong Fundamentals Amid Policy Uncertainty
Wall Street banks delivered robust Q4 earnings, led by trading strength, even as Trump’s proposed credit card rate cap clouds the outlook.
Gold Outlook: $4,700 in Sight, Volatility on the Rise
Gold hits new all-time highs as geopolitical tensions and Fed personnel uncertainty boost safe-haven demand. Short-term price bias remains upward, but crowded longs, TACO risk, and policy developments could amplify volatility.
Trading Geopolitical Risk: US-EU Tariffs, Greenland Sovereignty, USD Selling
With US markets affected by MLK Day, liquidity is likely to be a factor that exacerbates market moves. As the new trading week cranks up, we are seeing a strong but measured response to the weekend news flow, with the opening gambit delivering a modest rise in volatility, light portfolio de-risking, and further demand for gold and silver.
Markets Take Stock Of Trump's Greenland Tariff Threats
The initial FX market reaction to President Trump's latest tariff threats has been relatively contained, though a risk-averse equity futures open still looks to be on the cards later, as participants ponder what comes next.
The ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Explains US Resilience Despite Stalling Labour Market
A weakening labour market no longer stunts US growth as much as it once did; instead, asset prices and the wealth effect now dominate consumption and macro outcomes.
US Small Caps Outperform As Sector Rotation Continues
One notable theme of the US equity complex in recent weeks has been an increasing sector rotation under the surface, even as the broad-based rally rolls on at an index level.
November 2025 UK GDP: Upside Surprise Amid Downside Risks
This morning's UK GDP figures pointed to surprisingly strong growth in November, though much of this was mechanically-driven by a rebound in production.
Metals Continue To Run Higher Amid Myriad Bullish Catalysts
Metals are surging to record highs as fiscal risk, geopolitics, momentum, and supply tightness fuel a powerful, broad-based bull run.
December 2025 US CPI: Cooler Than Consensus
December’s US CPI report produced a cooler than consensus core CPI figure which, while not materially altering the near-term policy outlook, keeps the Fed on track for further cuts later in the year.
JPY Softens Amid Early Election Chatter
Rumours of an early Japanese election have sparked a further round of JPY weakness, and fuelled expectations that MoF intervention could also come sooner rather than later.
Alphabet Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap: AI Strategy and Gemini Ecosystem Poised to Shape the Future
On January 12, Alphabet’s market value surpassed $4 trillion. The Apple-Gemini partnership, AI-driven ad integration, and cloud cost advantages highlight Google’s AI strategy, ecosystem moat, and long-term growth potential.
Gold Outlook: Price Challenges $4,600, Eyes on U.S. CPI and Retail Sales
Gold briefly surged past $4,600, reaching a record high. Rising geopolitical tensions, weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls, and ongoing central bank buying continue to support prices. This week, U.S. CPI and retail sales may trigger short-term volatility.
Trump Ups The Ante In Feud With Powell
The DoJ's sending of subpoenas to the Fed should be seen for what it is - another blatant attempt to erode policy independence.
December 2025 US Employment Report: Hiring Cools, Unemployment Falls
December’s US labour market report pointed to the pace of hiring having cooled, but unemployment also declining, as the year drew to a close. The Fed are now likely to stand pat at the end of the month, but further cuts remain on the cards this year.
The Mounting Risks Of A BoE Policy Error
UK growth is stalling, disinflation is entrenched, and the labour market is weakening, yet the BoE's policy stance remains too tight, risking a policy error.
Trump’s $200B MBS Purchase Plan: Short-Term Housing Rally, Long-Term Risks Amplified
Trump’s Bold MBS Move: Lower mortgage rates may temporarily boost housing and markets, but systemic risks and execution uncertainty remain.
Geopolitical Risk in 2026 Is Rising and Markets May Be Underpricing It
We are only nine days into 2026, yet the pace and scale of geopolitical developments already suggest a material shift in the global risk landscape.
Neutral Rate Revisited: Markets May Be Pricing the Fed Wrong
Revisiting the Fed’s neutral rate through history and balance sheet dynamics challenges the case for a higher terminal rate and argues for a longer, deeper easing cycle, and thus a more supportive backdrop for risk than the market may currently price.