US Interest Rate Pricing: Calculating & Quantifying Market Expectations for Fed Policy
Learn how to calculate what the market has priced into US interest rate futures. Explore SOFR futures, Fed funds futures, and CME’s FedWatch tool to track Fed policy expectations, terminal rates, and recession risk.
September 2025 BoE Review: A Pragmatic QT Tweak With Further Cuts On The Cards
The BoE stood pat on rates at the September meeting, while taking a pragmatic decision to slow the pace of QT. An easing bias remains, with a November cut still the base case for now.
Fed Front-Loading As Central Bank Bonanza Continues
The Fed’s 25bp cut, and likely front-loading of rate reductions, further strengthened the bull case for risk on Wednesday, as focus now turns to the BoE, BoJ, and Norges Bank.
September 2025 FOMC Review: When Doves Fly
As expected, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bp at the September meeting, with the accompanying dot plot suggesting a relatively rapid return to neutral could now be on the cards.
August 2025 UK Inflation: Underlying Pressures Ease But Worries Remain
This morning's UK inflation data pointed to price pressures having remained significant, but easing marginally, as the summer wore on.
Markets Brace For Fed To Cut
Markets again meandered on Tuesday despite solid-ish UK jobs, and strong US retail sales data. Today, participants brace for a 25bp Fed cut, with focus falling on guidance for the policy path ahead.
USD Slides as Traders Build Shorts Into FOMC; DXY, EURUSD, and Gold in Focus
The US dollar continues to weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting, with traders adding to shorts as DXY breaks key levels. EURUSD hits new YTD highs, USDCHF and USDJPY remain heavy, while gold consolidates gains and equities trade sideways.
The Fed’s Triple Mandate Poses A Big Risk To Consensus
A little-known third part to the Fed's mandate could pose a big tail risk to heavily crowded consensus trades.
July 2025 UK Jobs Report: Tentative Signs Of Stability
This morning's UK labour market data showed some tentative signs that recent weakness may have bottomed out over the summer.
Calm Before The Event Risk Storm Continues
It proved a relatively calm start to the week yesterday, with conviction somewhat capped ahead of this week’s packed calendar. That deluge of event risk starts today, with UK jobs & US retail sales due.
Gold Outlook: Upward Momentum Pauses, FOMC Meeting in Focus
With expectations of a Fed rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold has settled into a high-level consolidation. This week, U.S. retail sales and the FOMC meeting will be the key events to watch, potentially shaping whether gold can resume a directional trend.
Markets Meander Into A Monster Week
Markets didn’t do especially much on Friday, in a day that felt like the ‘calm before the storm’, with a monster docket ahead this week, including 5 G10 policy decisions, and a data deluge on both sides of the pond.
A Trader’s Week Ahead: Will Powell Deliver Amid a Deluge of Macro Risks?
Stay ahead of the markets with this week’s trader playbook. Key risks include the FOMC meeting with a likely 25bp cut, BoC and Norges Bank rate decisions, U.S. corporate tax payments draining bank reserves, SOFR vs IORB liquidity stress, and potential ‘Triple Witching’ volatility.
Claims Trump CPI Amid Dovish Cross-Asset Trade
Dovish trade dominated yesterday after an inline US CPI print was accompanied by much softer than expected jobless claims data. Today, UK GDP, and US consumer sentiment, highlight the calendar.
September 2025 ECB Review: Still In A Good Place
The ECB, as expected, stood pat at the September meeting, with the updated staff projections, and Lagarde’s comments, all-but-confirming that the easing cycle is done & dusted.
August 2025 US CPI: Solidifying A September Cut
Both headline and core CPI rose at rates in line with expectations last month, further solidifying the case for a September Fed cut, even as tariffs continue to be passed-through.
Nikkei Hits Record High: Political Shifts, Capital Awakening, and Tech Momentum
The Nikkei 225 has surged past 44,000, setting a historic record. Political change, global easing expectations, and a domestic recovery are fueling the rally - but policy uncertainty suggests the road ahead won’t be smooth.
Turgid Trade As CPI & ECB Loom
Trade was sluggish and a little uninspiring on Wednesday, despite a much cooler-than-expected US PPI print. Today, US CPI highlights the docket, while the ECB are set to stand pat on policy.