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China’s IPO trade is running hot
China’s IPO scene is red hot. After CXMT opened 431% above its IPO price on 27 July, investors were immediately looking for the next major technology IPO.
They didn’t have to wait long, with Unitree Robotics opening subscriptions for its highly anticipated IPO last week.
Unitree sits at the heart of one of the market’s biggest emerging investment themes. The commercialisation of humanoid robots is only starting to scale, and China currently accounts for an estimated 97% of global humanoid robot shipments.
Unitree versus AgiBot
AgiBot currently leads the industry by volume, accounting for around 44% of global humanoid shipments in 1H26, ahead of Unitree at approximately 31%.
Unitree, however, is a more established commercial robotics business, with higher revenue, a broader product range and arguably greater global brand recognition.
For investors wanting direct listed exposure to the humanoid robotics theme, Unitree therefore represents a major milestone.
CNY8.1 trillion chases the IPO
Demand has been extraordinary.
Unitree’s initial online subscription was around 8,289 times oversubscribed. Even after allocation adjustments, the retail tranche remained around 5,526 times oversubscribed, with individual investors submitting approximately CNY8.1 trillion, or US$1.2 trillion, of bids.
For context, CXMT attracted around CNY7.1 trillion of retail orders for its IPO.
More than CNY15 trillion of retail demand chasing two major Chinese technology IPOs tells you plenty about current animal spirits.
A demanding valuation
Unitree’s IPO has been priced at CNY150.80, valuing the company at around 35 times sales.
That is not cheap, especially compared with the valuation offered through the CXMT IPO. However, Unitree operates in a very different area of AI and offers investors rare listed exposure to a global leader in humanoid and quadruped robotics.
The company has also pushed back against concerns surrounding recent US restrictions, stating that its major existing products have FCC certification and that it does not expect the latest measures to prevent continued US sales of those products.
Perpetual CFD pricing implies a 292% gain
This is where things get really interesting.
Pepperstone’s Unitree pre-IPO Perpetual CFD is currently trading at US$87.63. At a USDCNY spot rate of 6.7465, that equates to an implied Unitree share price of around CNY591.22.
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Compare that with the CNY150.80 IPO price and the pre-IPO market is currently implying a gain of approximately 292%.
Put another way, CNY150.80 converts to around US$22.35 at the current exchange rate. The Perpetual CFD at US$87.63 is therefore pricing Unitree at almost four times its IPO valuation.
What does the Perpetual CFD tell us about the open?
The pre-IPO Perpetual CFD provides a live, tradeable indication of where market participants believe Unitree could trade when price discovery begins on the STAR Market.
It is not a forecast or guarantee of the opening price. It is a market-derived expectation created by buyers and sellers expressing views before the underlying shares begin trading.
Right now, that expectation is around CNY591.
Once Unitree begins trading, the underlying STAR Market share price becomes the key reference for the Perpetual CFD. That makes the difference between the final pre-IPO CFD price and Unitree’s actual opening price particularly interesting.
When will Unitree list?
An official listing date has yet to be confirmed, although reports have pointed to a potential debut between 17 and 19 August.
The STAR Market opening auction begins at 9:15am Shanghai time, with continuous trading starting at 9:30am, or 11:30am AEST.
That is when extraordinary IPO demand finally meets genuine secondary-market price discovery.
Can Unitree repeat CXMT?
An 8,289x online subscription and CNY8.1 trillion of retail bids suggest demand is certainly there.
Whether Unitree can replicate CXMT’s 431% opening gain remains to be seen. But with Pepperstone’s pre-IPO market currently implying a gain of around 292%, expectations are already exceptionally high.
The tongue-in-cheek ‘free-money’ IPO trade appears to be back on in China. Unitree will be a fascinating test of just how far investors are prepared to take it.
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