Thus far, the UK economy has defied the expectations of most, holding relatively firm despite the BoE’s aggressive tightening campaign. Nevertheless, heading into 2024, numerous risks remain, with economic growth anaemic, inflation relatively sticky, the labour market beginning to soften, and the lagged impacts of Bank Rate hikes yet to fully bite. Consequently, the year ahead is likely to bring a relatively bumpy macroeconomic ride.

As we edge closer to 2024, the spotlight will definitely be on the LATAM FX front again, especially after its impressive run in 2023.

The table can offer a guide as to ‘what’s priced in’, and quantifies expectations expressed in the tradeable interest rate or interest rate swaps markets.