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Equities

Q1 24 US Bank Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
2 apr 2024
All you need to know ahead of US bank earnings, which kick off Q1 reporting season on 12th April.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, 12pm BST/7am ET, 12 Apr):

JPM trades +16.9% YTD, within the top 100 performers in the S&P 500 this year, and the 2nd best performing bank in the index. Stock is the 11th largest in the S&P, with an index weight of 1.3%, and 13th largest in the Dow, with a weight just over 3%. Options imply a move of +/- 3.1% in the 24 hours following the earnings release. JPM has rallied after five of the last six quarterly reports, though fell 0.75% after reporting Q4 23 earnings in January. Consensus sees quarterly adjusted EPS at $4.21, quarterly revenues at $41.4bln.

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Wells Fargo (WFC, 12pm BST/7am ET, 12 Apr)

Wells Fargo trade +16.8% YTD, also within the top 100 performers in the S&P 500 since the turn of the year, and the index’s 3rd performing bank stock. WFC trades as the 36th largest stock by weight in the S&P 500, with a weight of around 0.5%. Options imply a move of +/- 3.9% in the 24 hours following the earnings release, with WFC stock having fallen over that period following three of the last four quarterly reports. consensus sees adjusted EPS at $1.09, down from Q1’s $1.29, and quarterly revenues at $20.2bln.

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Citigroup (C, 1pm BST/8am ET, 12 Apr)

Citi trade +22.5% YTD, the best performing bank in the S&P, and within the top 50 best performers in the S&P 500 since the start of January. In terms of index weightings, however, Citi stand as just the 75th largest stock in the index, with a meagre 0.3% weight. Over earnings, options price a move of +/- 3.7% following the release, with the Q4 23 report marking the first time in three quarters that the C share price had gained in the subsequent 24 hours after earnings dropped. Quarterly adj. EPS is seen at $1.37, up from Q1’s adjusted $0.84, while quarterly revenue is seen at $20.4bln.

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Goldman Sachs (GS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 15 Apr)

Goldman trade +6.5% YTD, almost bang in line with the performance of the average stock in the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. While only being the 60th largest stock in the S&P 500, Goldman do stand as the 3rd largest stock in the price-weighted Dow, with an index weight just shy of 7%. Derivatives imply a move of +/- 2.7% in GS stock over earnings. Pedigree is patchy, with the last 8 quarterly reports resulting in an equal split of positive and negative 24 hour returns. Quarterly adjusted EPS is seen at $8.91, a sharp increase from Q1’s $5.48, while quarterly revenues are expected a touch north of $13bln.

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Bank of America (BAC, 11:45am BST/6:45am ET, 16 Apr)

BAC trade around 10% higher in the first three months of 2024, the 4th best performing bank in the S&P 500, and a performance that is just a touch above the roughly 9% gain notched by the S&P at large. BofA stand as the 27th largest stock in the S&P, with an approx. 0.6% index weight. Options currently price a +/- 2.8% move in the stock in the 24 hours following the earnings release. The 1% decline in the day following the Q4 23 report marked the first time that BAC had traded in the red in the 24 hours after earnings since the Q2 21 print in July of that year. Consensus sees quarterly adjusted EPS at $0.77, up from the $0.70 in Q1, while quarterly revenues are expected to print north of $25.5bln.

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Morgan Stanley (MS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 16 Apr)

MS trade marginally in the red YTD, down 0.45% at the time of writing, lagging both peers, and broader US indices. The stock has a relatively small index weight in the S&P 500, at around 0.25%, roughly in line with the weight of Citigroup. Over earnings, options currently price a move of +/- 3.25% in the 24 hours following the report, with MS having fallen significantly in the aftermath of the last 2 quarterly earnings releases – dropping 4.2% after Q4 23 figures, and 6.8% after the Q3 23 report. In fact, MS has fallen in the 24 hours following 4 of the last 7 quarterly earnings reports. Street consensus sees quarterly adjusted EPS at $1.68 in Q1 24, up from $1.13 in Q4 23, while quarterly revenue is seen at $14.4bln; AUM, meanwhile, is set to tick higher to $1.48tln, from $1.46tln in Q4 23.

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Note – all figures in this article are correct as of 2nd April 2024; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

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