“Takaichi Trade” Returns: Nikkei 225 Climbs in Short Term, Debt Risks in Focus

Following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement to dissolve the Lower House this Friday, the snap election has been officially set for February 8.

Takaichi has stated that if the new coalition government wins, it will temporarily lower the consumption tax on food and roll out a growth-oriented policy package covering fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and high-tech sector investments.

The market reacted positively to the news, with the “Takaichi trade” quickly returning. The Nikkei 225 briefly surged to 54,519, marking a record high.

However, in recent trading sessions, bearish forces have begun to emerge. Beyond geopolitical risks, concerns over Japan’s fiscal health are increasing, potentially putting short-term pressure on the stock market’s upward momentum.

Expansion Expectations and a Weak Yen: The Dual Engines Driving the Nikkei

Takaichi’s policy package offers direct support for Japanese equities. The reduction in the consumption tax is expected to boost household spending, benefiting retail, daily consumer goods, and services sectors.

At the same time, the anticipated fiscal expansion and weaker yen significantly enhance the overseas revenue conversion for exporters such as automakers, machinery, and semiconductor companies.

With global investors seeking returns beyond U.S. equities and remaining cautious on highly valued markets, a weaker yen also lowers the cost of international capital inflows, providing additional upward momentum for the stock market.

Moreover, Takaichi’s commitment to invest in AI, semiconductors, and other high-tech industries gives related companies clearer visibility for long-term earnings growth.

This combination of policy support and currency tailwinds has drawn international attention to Japanese stocks in the short term, fueling bullish sentiment.

Monetary Policy and Intervention Risk: Tax Cuts as “Data Noise”

As Japanese stocks rally, some traders are concerned that the Bank of Japan might tighten monetary policy, potentially limiting risk asset gains. However, at present, the likelihood of intervention by the BoJ or the Ministry of Finance remains limited.

One key factor is that the CPI measures actual transaction prices, so a consumption tax cut mechanically suppresses the index, even if underlying demand remains steady. For the BoJ, this is largely “data noise”: headline inflation may appear lower, but the cause is policy-driven, not due to weakness in the real economy.

The core conditions for tightening remain unchanged, including sustained wage growth, sticky service-sector inflation, and inflation expectations anchored around 2%. In this context, the consumption tax cut does not compel the BoJ to raise rates earlier; if anything, it provides further rationale to delay action.

Regarding Ministry of Finance intervention, the market is more focused on the speed of yen depreciation and whether exchange rates deviate from fundamentals. Currently, neither appears to be significant.

As a result, risks to Japanese equities arising from premature rate hikes or currency intervention are not a near-term concern, though subsequent market developments warrant close attention.

Structural Opportunities Take the Lead, Long-Term Bull Market Still Unproven

Undoubtedly, the Takaichi trade has boosted market confidence in the short term, supporting Japanese equity bulls, but potential risks remain.

• Fiscal and debt pressures:Japan’s public debt exceeds 200% of GDP, and markets are highly sensitive to fiscal discipline. Should Takaichi pursue aggressive fiscal spending and tax cuts, government borrowing costs could rise, pushing bond yields higher, directly pressuring equities—especially financials and highly leveraged companies.
• Carry trades and geopolitical risks:While a weaker yen benefits exporters, it also increases carry trade activity and the risk of capital outflows, potentially causing stock market volatility. If regional geopolitical tensions intensify, systemic risks to Japanese equities could rise further.
• Earnings realization pace:The sustainability of the stock rally depends on whether corporate earnings meet expectations. With Takaichi’s policy expectations largely priced in, any shortfall could trigger rapid market adjustments.

Overall, Takaichi’s policies offer tailwinds and create selective structural opportunities. However, whether the rally can be sustained over the longer run will depend on effective policy execution, follow-through in corporate earnings, and the evolution of macro fundamentals and structural reforms.