Q3 24 ‘Magnificent Seven’ Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Tesla (TSLA, 4:10pm ET/9:10pm BST, 23^rd October)

TSLA trades a disappointing 12% lower on a YTD basis, with the market having been somewhat non-plussed by recent developments, including the ‘Robotaxi’ launch event. By virtue of this decline, the stocks stands as the 6^th worst performing in the Consumer Discretionary sector since the turn of the year. Nevertheless, TSLA’s index weighting remains significant, with the firm still standing as the 11^th largest in the S&P 500, and the 7^th largest in the Nasdaq 100. While options tied to the release price a post-earnings move of +/-7.3%, recent post-earnings performance has been poor, with the stock ending reporting day in the green just once since Q1 23. In terms of expectations, consensus sees adjusted EPS at $0.59, on revenue of $25.5bln.

Amazon (AMZN, 4pm ET/9pm BST, 24^th October)

Amazon trades around 25% higher YTD, outperforming the S&P 500, as well as the Consumer Discretionary sector, which has been the second worst performing in the benchmark index this year. From a weightings perspective, AMZN stands as the 4^th largest in the S&P, with a 3.6% weight, while being the 6^th largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a 5% weight in the tech-heavy index; the stock is also a Dow constituent. Options imply a move of +/-2% in the 24 hours following the earnings release, with 1 standard deviation of confidence. While the stock notched a post-earnings decline in Q2, AMZN had rallied after results for four straight quarters before that. For Q3 24, consensus expects diluted EPS at $1.16, on revenues of $157.3bln.

Alphabet (GOOGL, 4pm ET/8pm GMT, 29^th October)

Alphabet trades a sub-par 17% higher YTD, lagging behind both the S&P 500, and the Communication Services sector; though, the stock does still stand as the 9^th best performing in its industry. In terms of index weights, GOOGL stands as the 9^th largest in the S&P, with a 2.4% weighting, though this can be doubled when accounting for both the ‘A’ and ‘C’ class shares. Derivatives tied to the stock point to a sizeable +/-5.1% move in the stock in the day following the earnings release, while recent post-earnings performance has been patchy, with GOOGL trading lower following three of the last four quarterly reports. For Q3 24, the street expects diluted EPS of $1.83 on revenue of $86.4bln.

Meta Platforms (30^th October, 4:05pm ET/8:50pm GMT, 30^th October)

META has been a standout performer this year, rallying just shy of 70% in the first 9 months of 2024, standing as by far the best performer in the Communication Services sector, and within the top 20 biggest gainers in the S&P 500 at large. From a weightings perspective, META stands as the 5^th largest stock in both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/-8.4%, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. Recent post-result performance has been rather mixed, with 2 gains, and 2 losses, following the last four reports. This time, consensus foresees diluted EPS of %5.22, on quarterly revenues of $40.2bln.

Microsoft (MSFT, 4:10pm ET/8:10pm GMT, 30^th October)

Microsoft’s performance has left rather a lot to be desired this year, with the stock trading just shy of 11% higher, underperforming both the S&P 500, and the Information Technology sector. The stock remains, however, a behemoth, standing as the third largest in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, with a weight of 6.3% and 7.8% respectively; MSFT is also the third biggest member in the Dow. Over earnings, derivatives tied to the stock imply a move of +/-4.5% in the subsequent 24 hours, with the stock having a 50/50 record of gains and losses following the last four quarterly reports. For the upcoming report, expectations point to adjusted EPS at $3.11, on revenue of $64.5bln.

Apple (AAPL, 4:30pm ET/8:30pm GMT, 31^st October)

Apple trades around 20% higher since the turn of the year, a rather disappointing performance in comparison to the roughly 32% gain chalked up by the broader Information Technology sector, though one that is broadly in line with the performance of the benchmark S&P 500. In the index, AAPL remains the largest stock, possessing a 7.1% weight, while also being the largest stock by weight in the Nasdaq 100, as well as a member of the Dow. Options expiring around the Q3 earnings report price a move of +/-3.6% in the stock, with Apple having notched post-earnings gains following each of the last 2 quarterly releases. For Q3 24, consensus expects diluted EPS of $1.59, on revenues of $94.3bln.

Nvidia (NVDA, 4:20pm ET/9:20pm GMT, 27^th November)

Nvidia remains a star performer in the equity space, having rallied a whopping 172% YTD, standing as the second best performer in the S&P 500, and the best in the Nasdaq 100, over that time period. The firm also happens to be the second largest stock by weight in each of those indices. Even with considerable time left to run until the earnings release, options price a move of +/-7.7% in the 24 hours following the report, equating to a swing in market cap of around $250bln in either direction. Expectations, for Q3 24, point to adjusted EPS of $0.74, on quarterly revenues just over $33bln.

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