Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
Michael Brown is a seasoned, award-winning market analyst, with a record of providing pertinent commentary, analysis, and forecasting across all major asset classes, principally through a global macro focus, over a decade in the financial services industry. He frequently appears in a wide range of UK and international media, discussing major risk events, key market trends, and broader macroeconomic themes. Michael holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University.
Most recent articles
December 2025 US CPI: Cooler Than Consensus
December’s US CPI report produced a cooler than consensus core CPI figure which, while not materially altering the near-term policy outlook, keeps the Fed on track for further cuts later in the year.
JPY Softens Amid Early Election Chatter
Rumours of an early Japanese election have sparked a further round of JPY weakness, and fuelled expectations that MoF intervention could also come sooner rather than later.
Trump Ups The Ante In Feud With Powell
The DoJ's sending of subpoenas to the Fed should be seen for what it is - another blatant attempt to erode policy independence.
December 2025 US Employment Report: Hiring Cools, Unemployment Falls
December’s US labour market report pointed to the pace of hiring having cooled, but unemployment also declining, as the year drew to a close. The Fed are now likely to stand pat at the end of the month, but further cuts remain on the cards this year.
The Mounting Risks Of A BoE Policy Error
UK growth is stalling, disinflation is entrenched, and the labour market is weakening, yet the BoE's policy stance remains too tight, risking a policy error.
Neutral Rate Revisited: Markets May Be Pricing the Fed Wrong
Revisiting the Fed’s neutral rate through history and balance sheet dynamics challenges the case for a higher terminal rate and argues for a longer, deeper easing cycle, and thus a more supportive backdrop for risk than the market may currently price.
Q4 25 US Bank Earnings: By The Numbers
Fourth quarter earnings season will soon be underway with, as usual, major Wall Street banks kicking things off.
A Look Ahead To Q4 25 US Earnings Season
With the S&P 500 priced for near-perfection, Q4 earnings season will test a key pillar of the equity bull case. Banks, Big Tech, and AI capex plans are firmly in focus.
Preview For The December 2025 US Jobs Report
The first week of the new year wraps up with market participants, and policymakers, receiving their latest update on the state of the US employment situation. With the labour market having, largely, continued to stagnate in both October and November, the upcoming release will be closely scrutinised for evidence of a labour market rebound, or signs that conditions have continued to stand still.
December 2025 ECB Review: Nothing To See Here
To nobody’s surprise, the ECB’s Governing Council stood pat at this year’s final policy meeting, strengthening the idea that the easing cycle is done & dusted, and seeking not to ‘rock the boat’ before the Christmas break.
November 2025 UK Inflation: Price Pressures Continue To Fade
This morning's UK inflation figures will do little to deter the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee from delivering another 25bp rate reduction tomorrow, in the final policy announcement of the year.
October 2025 UK GDP: A Dire State Of Affairs
October's UK GDP figures pointed to the economy contracting for a second straight month, as pre-Budget uncertainty acted as a drag on growth, and with risks tilting firmly to the downside into year-end.
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1. Data for the Pepperstone Group, correct as at October 2025.