Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
Michael Brown is a seasoned, award-winning market analyst, with a record of providing pertinent commentary, analysis, and forecasting across all major asset classes, principally through a global macro focus, over a decade in the financial services industry. He frequently appears in a wide range of UK and international media, discussing major risk events, key market trends, and broader macroeconomic themes. Michael holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University.
Most recent articles
Markets Are Looking At The Wrong Second-Round Effects Of The Energy Shock
A hawkish repricing of G10 policy expectations suggests markets are over-simplifying the economic backdrop, with the commodity shock more likely to significantly dent demand, than to lead to second-round inflationary effects.
January 2026 UK GDP: Downside Surprise As Geopolitics Clouds The Outlook
This morning's UK GDP data pointed to the economy having stagnated as the year got underway.
March 2026 BoE Preview: Cuts Postponed
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, amid elevated uncertainty owing to the present geopolitical backdrop, with the subsequent commodity price shock presenting a significant upside inflation risk in the near-term. Still, policymakers are ultimately likely to view said shock as temporary in nature, leaving further rate cuts on the cards as the year goes on.
February 2026 US CPI: Before The Energy Shock
February’s US CPI report sprang nothing by way of surprises, though matters not one bit to markets, or the FOMC, with attention now falling squarely on the upside inflation risks posed by the ongoing energy price shock amid conflict in the Middle East.
March 2026 ECB Preview: Looking Through The Energy Shock
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council are set to hold all policy settings steady at the March meeting, looking-through the energy price shock for now, even with the inflation profile likely to be revised notably higher in the updated economic projections.
March 2026 FOMC Preview: Powell On Pause In Penultimate Meeting
The FOMC are set to stand pat at the March meeting, not only in light of having adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach at the first confab of the year, but also as a huge degree of uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook, after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent energy price shock, which tilts near-term inflation risks to the upside.
Crude Surges Amid Risk Rout With Geopolitics In Focus
Energy markets are driving cross-asset price action as Hormuz disruption pushes crude above $100/bbl, lifting inflation expectations and weighing on risk assets.
February 2026 US Employment Report: A Huge Downside Surprise
The February US jobs report pointed to payrolls having unexpectedly declined last month, and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The FOMC, however, are unlikely to over-react to the data, given one-off factors skewing the payrolls print lower, and the fog of uncertainty caused by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
‘Buy America’ Returns As Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Upside
Geopolitical risk has fuelled renewed haven demand for the dollar, which has proved the only shelter for market participants amid recent turmoil.
Market Narratives Diverge As Commodity Shock Triggers Broad De-Risking
Geopolitical tensions have led participants to seek havens, while an energy price shock sees STIRs and Govvies reprice hawkishly, amid signs sentiment may be nearing an extreme.
Preview For The February 2026 Jobs Report
Though geopolitical events are presently dominating the narrative, the first Friday of the month will still see the release of the latest US labour market report. The data, however, is unlikely to materially move the needle for the FOMC, who are set to remain in ‘wait and see’ mode for the time being.
Geopolitical Events Dominate The Narrative: Energy & Off Ramps The Key Areas To Watch
Markets have reverted to the classic risk-off playbook as Middle East hostilities continue, with focus on oil supply and de-escalation risks.
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1. Data for the Pepperstone Group, correct as at October 2025.