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2 Charts which have caught my attention - Oil and Bitcoin

Luke Suddards
Research Strategist
15 Sept 2021
These two have popped onto my radar. Let's take a look at what you need to know.

The black liquid has been making some interesting price moves, before we move to the chart some of the more pertinent fundamental data is as follows. Hurricane Ida is taking longer to resolve, with more than 39% of Gulf of Mexico production still offline according to the regulator Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Then more Hurricane news arrived with Nicholas Aside, however, the expectation is for Nicholas to peter out and transform into a tropical depression instead. Further on the supply side, China's offloading of its strategic crude reserves could pressure prices if ramped up.

Peering over at demand, we had the private US inventory data (official out tonight) out last night which showed a much larger than expected drawdown (-5.4mln vs -3.5mln). There is also media reports that the UK’s travel system will be seeing an overhaul which could lead to improved jet fuel demand.


(Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance)

Oil has been on a tear over the past 4 days, breaking above the mini triangle pattern and eyeing the $75 level. The 21-day EMA has crossed above the 50-day SMA, which is positive for short term momentum. The RSI is very slightly above the 58 level (capped previous price rallies). Targets wise, first could be $75 then the 6 July high of $77.82. On the downside, $72 support and 50-day SMA could be pivotal. Below there $70 would be important

(Source: Tradingview - Past performance is not indicative of future performance)

Bitcoin has made the famed Golden Cross, whereby the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA. Client positioning data indicates clients are skewed just shy of 60% long on BTCUSD. The RSI is at a crucial level, 53, which was were price dips previously held and could act as resistance now. There is horizontal support around $44.5k which helping to find buying demand. For the bulls, price needs to break above $49.2k resistance then the $52.8k high on September 6 comes into play. If $44.5k were to break then $41k former range resistance would be a target, below there $38.1k support would be of interest.

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