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Market Analysis

Never miss an opportunity with high impact economic event coverage, expert commentary, videos and more from our global market analysts.

Pepperstone's economic calendar is your go-to source for comprehensive coverage of global economic data. Updated in real time and with customizable filters, it's the ideal tool for traders looking to stay informed of potential market-moving events.

Alphabet (GOOG, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 23rd July)Alphabet kick off mag 7 reporting season, trading a disappointing 6% lower YTD, underperforming both the benchmark S&amp;P 500, and the Communication Services sector. Combining both of the firm’s listings, Alphabet have around a 4% weighting in the S&amp;P, and around 7% in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. Options tied to the stock price a move of +/-5.5% in the 24 hours following the release, with GOOG having surprised to the upside of consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q1 23. This time out, consensus expects diluted EPS at $2.16, on revenues of $93.8bln.

Tesla (TSLA, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 23rd July)Tesla have rather run out of charge this year, trading around 25% lower, albeit some distance off the mid-March lows, as participants continue to take a dim view of the ongoing Trump-Musk feud, and with the removal of EV subsidies also posing stiff headwinds. In any case, TSLA still stand as the 10th largest stock in the S&amp;P 500, and as the 9th largest in the Nasdaq 100. Derivatives imply a punchy move of +/-7.2% in the day after the upcoming earnings release, with TSLA having rallied following the last three reports running. For the Q2 report, after delivery figures recently missed expectations, the Street expects adj. EPS at $0.44, on revenues of $22.9bln.

Microsoft (MSFT, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 30th July)Microsoft trade around 20% higher YTD, continuing to find plenty of love from market participants, as the AI boom continues. Consequently, MSFT sit as the 2nd largest stock in both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, while also having a 7% weighing in the Dow. Microsoft options price a move of +/-4.3% in the day following the report, with the stock having rallied following the prior report, but having ended the day lower in the aftermath of the three reports before that. This time out, consensus foresees adj. EPS at $3.37, on revenues of $73.8bln, which would represent solid YoY growth of 13% in constant currency terms.

Meta (META, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 30th July)Meta remain a market darling, having rallied about 25% this year, being the 3rd best performing Consumer Services stock in the S&amp;P 500 in 2025. The stock also stands as the 5th largest stock in both the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq 100, with a sizeable 6% weighting in the latter. Meta options price a move of +/-6.6% in the session following the earnings release, with the stock having ended the day in the green following three of the last four quarterly reports. For the upcoming release, expectations point to diluted EPS at $5.84, on revenues of $44.6bln.

Apple (AAPL, 9:30pm BST/4:30pm ET, 31st July)Apple continue to trade in relatively dismal fashion, sitting approximately 15% lower on the year, as the stock faces numerous headwinds including ongoing tariff-related uncertainty, and as progress on AI remains painfully slow, severely lacking competitors. Despite that, AAPL remains the third largest stock in both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, while also being a Dow constituent. AAPL derivatives price a relatively modest move of +/-3.7% in the day following earnings, though the stock has ended the day in the red following the last three reports in a row. For the upcoming release, consensus expectations are for EPS at $1.43, on revenues of $89.1bln.

Amazon (AMZN, Date &amp; Time TBC, likely late-July) Amazon have been a rather ordinary performer this year, sitting pretty much unchanged YTD coming into the upcoming report, notably lagging the benchmark S&amp;P 500, in which the stock retains a 4.2% weight. Along with that, AMZN is also the 4th largest stock in the Nasdaq 100, as well as being a Dow constituent. Options tied to Amazon price a move of +/-5.4% in the day following the report, though the stock has ended earnings day in the red following three of the last four releases, despite having surprised to the upside of EPS expectations in every quarter since the tail end of 2022. This time out, the Street foresees diluted EPS at $1.33, on revenues just shy of $162bln.

Nvidia (NVDA, 9:20pm/4:20pm ET, 27th August) Nvidia round out ‘mag 7’ reporting season, and continue to trade very well indeed, sitting around 22% higher YTD, and remaining the ultimate ‘picks and shovels’ play of the AI boom. Furthermore, the stock sits as the largest in both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while having also been included in the Dow relatively recently. Although we remain six weeks out from the print, NVDA options imply a move of +/-7.3% in the aftermath of the upcoming report, with the stock having surprised to the upside of expectations for the last three quarters in a row. In terms of expectations, NVDA is seen delivering adj. EPS at $1.00, on revenues of $45.5bln.

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Q2 25 ‘Magnificent Seven’ Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

As markets grapple with shifting tariff releases and U.S. stocks hesitate at lofty levels, CN50 has successfully broken through the key resistance level of 13,830, which had capped gains multiple times in March and May.<figure style="text-align: center"><div data-img-caption-container="true" style="display: inline-block; text-align: center;"><img asset_uid="blt20e48bc400a38c8d" alt="CN50_2025-07-10_17-15-19.png" src="https://eu-images.contentstack.com/v3/assets/bltaec35894448c7261/blt20e48bc400a38c8d/686f772cc8e19aab31e16ed8/CN50_2025-07-10_17-15-19.png" style="text-align: center;" /></div></figure>It is now hovering near 13,900, marking a new year-to-date high. In my view, this rally has been driven by the confluence of three factors: improving macro data with a degree of comparative advantage, the lack of immediate transmission of tariff shocks, and the continued release of policy-driven capital inflows.<h2>China’s Economy: Not Shining, But Showing Signs of Life</h2>From a fundamental perspective, while China’s economic data is not particularly strong, it has shown signs of marginal improvement. June CPI turned positive for the first time in several months and came in well above market expectations. The market has taken this as an early sign of easing deflationary pressure, which has boosted risk appetite.At the same time, several international investment banks have revised up their growth forecasts for China’s GDP, while the U.S. economy faces increasing downside risks. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes flagged concerns over inflationary pressures from tariffs and a weakening labor market, yet policymakers still appear cautious on rate cuts.Additionally, the U.S. faces mounting debt issues, and U.S. equity valuations remain elevated, making investors more hesitant to buy in. In comparison, China’s macro fundamentals are starting to look more attractive, prompting some overseas funds to rotate into CN50 and other core Chinese assets.<h2>Tariff Threats Make Noise, But Markets Stay Calm</h2>Trump's renewed tariff threats - while loud - haven’t translated into immediate market damage. From signing a trade deal with Vietnam to threatening a 10% tariff on economies aligned with BRICS positions, these actions, while indirectly pointing to China, have not translated into immediate market consequences. The U.S.-China tariff truce remains in effect until mid-August.Given that both sides hold critical bargaining chips - China with rare earths, the U.S. with semiconductors - there is still ample room for negotiation. Comparatively, U.S. equities have been put on hold due to uncertainty stemming from Trump’s statements, and European markets remain largely dependent on favorable outcomes from trade discussions with the U.S. By contrast, CN50 appears to be relatively insulated from these disruptions in the short term.<h2>Policy Support Flows Like Fresh Water into CN50</h2>A steady stream of policy-driven capital inflows is providing solid support. The ongoing integration of financial markets between mainland China and Hong Kong is proving to be a structural tailwind. The inclusion of RMB stock counters in the Stock Connect program, the expansion of Southbound Connect to insurance and asset management institutions, and the rollout of Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance in August are all steadily improving cross-border financial infrastructure.For the CN50, which is heavily weighted toward financials, technology, and consumer sectors, these developments are undoubtedly providing fresh liquidity from institutional capital.Overall, CN50’s strong rebound is a natural outcome of investors seeking new directions amid heightened global uncertainty. At this stage, CN50 is demonstrating relative stability and structural support. In the near term, U.S.-China trade negotiations remain a key variable.<h2>Trade Talks: Complexity Breeds Opportunity</h2>Since both sides hold cards the other needs, the next phase of talks may move beyond unrealistic tariff hikes and shift toward enforcement mechanisms, compliance issues, and rules around origin tracing. While this adds complexity, it also opens the door for compromise and a potential easing of tensions. Any signs of de-escalation could further support CN50 performance.China’s activity data - including industrial production, retail sales, and trade figures - will be crucial in determining whether this rally has staying power. As things stand, market sentiment and the broader narrative are gradually tilting in China’s favor, and CN50 is responding accordingly.

Wall street with american flag road street

While Wall Street Hesitates, CN50 Accelerates

WHERE WE STAND – Once again, yesterday, I spent a rather large chunk of the day asking myself ‘is this thing on?’, such was the lack of any significant market movement, or especially interesting news flow.That let my mind wonder, to another question, around tariffs, and what the point of all this never-ending to-and-fro actually is. Is it an attempt to raise revenue? Is it an attempt to prompt a re-shoring of manufacturing? Or, is it just an easy way for President Trump to hog the limelight and drive the news agenda every day? Personally, I’m betting on the latter option every single day of the week.Anyway, while markets were somewhat subdued, Wednesday was nevertheless a day of gains on Wall Street, with major indices ending comfortably in the green, and Nvidia topping a $4tln market cap, becoming the first company to do so. There didn’t seem an obvious reason behind the rally – as I quipped on the desk, the only obvious rationale is because the day ended in a ‘y’.There is some degree of truth in that, though, with the path of least resistance for equities continuing to lead to the upside, as both economic and earnings growth remain solid. Support also continues to be provided by participants reading President Trump’s tariff letters, more of which were sent yesterday, and the accompanying extension of the negotiating deadline to 1st August, simply as an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy, and a dealmaking gambit, as opposed to a sincere threat. Given Trump’s performances thus far, that seems a logical bet, with TACO time probably only being weeks away…again.On the whole, though, both data- and news-flow were relatively light yesterday.Perhaps the most interesting remarks came from ECB Vice President de Guindos who, having last week mentioned that a move north of $1.20 could be “complicated”, has now resorted to ‘hoping’ that the exchange rate begins to stabilise.This isn’t really what one would want to hear a senior policymaker saying, and is further bait to market participants to really begin to test the ECB’s mettle as far as the currency is concerned. While the Governing Council will stand pat later this month, the case for a September cut could grow stronger if rhetoric of this ilk continues, simply to try and tamp down the value of the EUR.Besides that, minutes from the June FOMC meeting were a bit of a snoozefest, especially with the idea of a July cut having been put to bed after last week’s solid jobs report.Yesterday’s 10-year sale was of more interest, however, with the auction stopping through by a solid-enough 0.3bp, albeit a touch shy of the 6-auction average. Still, it was enough to allay some fiscal jitters, and allow Treasury benchmarks to gain across the curve, with benchmark 10-year yields falling over 5bp on the day. I remain of the view, however, that we’re going to stay in relatively tight trading bands for the time being, probably 4.25% - 4.50% on the 10-year, and 4.75% - 5.00% on the 30-year.LOOK AHEAD – Rather bucking the trend of the week so far, today’s docket actually has a few things of interest on it.On the data front, the weekly US jobless claims figures stand as the highlight. Though neither the initial nor the continuing claims print pertains to the July NFP survey week, both will be closely watched for any signs of emerging labour market fragility, especially as the former continues to linger around cycle highs, despite last week’s solid June jobs report.Elsewhere, the US sells 30-year notes this evening, in a sale that will no doubt be closely watched amid ongoing worries over the unsustainable fiscal path on which the US economy remains. That said, the last auction stopped-through a sizeable 1.4bp, a sign that healthy demand is there, if conditions are right.Besides that, central bank speakers are also back out in earnest today, including 2 ECB Governing Council members, 2 FOMC members including 2025 voter Musalem, plus BoE Deputy Governor Breeden. &nbsp;

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Markets Tread Water As Hunt For Catalyst Goes On

It is very rare for rates traders to price a 90%+ probability for a change in a central bank’s policy setting and to then be surprised by the outcome. There’s a reason for this… if a central bank is seen as responsible for raising expectations for a cut through its forward guidance, then by not delivering on that perceived outcome risks it’s credibility and losing the effectiveness of forward guidance as a policy tool. In the limited sample of cases where a central bank has gone against such high conviction in market pricing, this is typically a central bank wanting to inject uncertainty and volatility into interest rate pricing. Alternatively, it’s because of a poor communication strategy and not being aligned with markets. <h4>Do the RBA have a communications issue? </h4>In the case of the RBA’s surprise decision to keep the cash rate at 3.85%, many have been quick to opine that the RBA has a guidance and communication problem and is not in sync with the markets. I disagree with this call, and while I had expected a rate cut, I think the RBA can easily justify its call to leave rates unchanged, and the bank’s guidance that was not the issue. There is little doubt, though, that market players would have learnt some important lessons about how much weight the RBA ascribes towards market expectations in their policy settings. Traders would have now had a strong distinction in how the RBA communicates to markets and guides expectations relative to that of the Fed or the ECB - institutions which welcome their central bankers speaking frequently and who provide explicit guidance on how they will vote in the upcoming policy meeting. Relatively speaking, the RBA takes a much more nuanced and often vague approach in its policy guidance. This was true going into the July RBA meeting, and while market expectations were high, that pricing wasn’t because of any explicit guidance from the RBA. Some will argue that the RBA’s failing was more than that they simply failed to push back on elevated market expectations for a cut. Gov Bollock addressed this very consideration in the presser, detailing it “inappropriate to try and influence the market before a decision”. <h4>Timing vs direction </h4>By way of new forward guidance, Gov Bullock detailed in her presser that the call on rates was more about “timing rather than direction”. In RBA speak, this is as defined as we will hear from a bank that has a history of being vague, but it also offers some belief that the bar to cut in the August RBA meeting is low. <h4>The RBA should cut in August </h4>The RBA did mention that they wanted to hold off and wait for the Q2 CPI data (30 July) to offer the visibility to take rates closer to neutral. The RBA forecast Q2 inflation (trimmed mean) at 2.6% y/y, and while Gov Bullock stressed the bank hasn’t got defined levels that would see them hold off from cutting in August, Bullock’s use of “timing” suggests some degree of cushion against a hotter-than-feared CPI print.

Aussie swaps price an 89% probability that the RBA cut in August – that implied probability will move dynamically to changes in market sentiment and the outcome of key economic data. However, if the June employment data (released 17 July), and Q2 CPI (30 July) don’t run too hot, then we could be back in a situation of markets going into the August RBA meeting with high expectations of cut – of course we can’t rule out another surprise, but traders will be more prepared this time around.

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No communication issue at the RBA: An August rate cut is good to go

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, 11:45am BST/6:45am ET, 15 July)JPM trades approximately 18% higher YTD, outperforming not only within the Financials sector, but also the S&amp;P 500 at large. The stock stands as the 11th largest weighting in the benchmark, while also being a Dow constituent. Options tied to the stock price a move of +/-3.6% in the 24 hours following the upcoming earnings release, with JPM having ended the day in the green following the last three quarterly reports in a row. This time out, consensus expects adj. EPS at $4.47, on revenues of $44.1bln.

Wells Fargo (WFC, 12pm BST/7am ET, 15 July)Wells have advanced just over 15% this year, having been buoyed recently by news that the $1.95tln asset cap imposed by the Federal Reserve has finally been lifted, after seven years. That performance, in any case, also sees WFC outperforming both Financials sector, and the benchmark S&amp;P 500, with the stock being the 31st largest member of the index. Derivatives imply a move of +/-4.2% after the upcoming earnings print, though the stock has ended in the red following four of the last six reports. For Q2 25, the Street expects adj. EPS at $1.40, on revenues of $20.7bln.

Citigroup (C, 1pm BST/8am ET, 15 July)Citi trade around 22% higher YTD, tied with GS for the best performing bank stock in 2025, and vastly outperforming the benchmark S&amp;P 500, though only has a relatively modest 0.3% weighting in the index. Options on Citi price a move of around +/-3.7% on reporting day, with the stock having ended the day in the green for 2 quarters in a row, post-earnings. For the upcoming report, consensus expects adj. EPS of $1.61, on revenues of $20.9bln.

Bank of America (BAC, 11:45am BST/6:45am ET, 16 July)BAC comes into Q2 earnings trading just 7% higher YTD, not only lagging peers, but also underperforming the S&amp;P 500, within which it stands as the 23rd largest constituent. BAC derivatives imply a move of +/-3.6% in the 24 hours following the upcoming earnings release, with recent pedigree having been rather mixed, with 3 gains and 3 losses following the last 6 reports. In Q2 25, expectations point to adj. EPS of $0.85, on revenues of $26.7bln.

Goldman Sachs (GS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 16 July) Goldman have gained about 22% so far in 2025, tied with Citi for the best performing bank stock YTD. In terms of index weightings, Goldman stands as the 43rd largest stock in the S&amp;P 500, but also sits as the largest stock in the Dow, with a sizeable 9.7% weight in the latter. Options on GS price a move of +/-3.5% in the day following the earnings print, with the stock having gained post-earnings following 5 of the last 6 reports. For the upcoming release, participants expect adj. EPS of $9.69, on net revenues of $13.5bln.

Morgan Stanley (MS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 16 July)Morgan Stanley sit around 12% higher so far this year, marginally outperforming the Financials sector, but lagging most peers. That said, MS are outperforming the benchmark S&amp;P 500, while standing as the 37th largest stock in the index. Options contracts imply a move of +/-3.9% over the upcoming release, with markets having cheered recent earnings, seeing the stock rally following the last five quarterly reports running. In Q2 25, consensus expects adj. EPS at $1.97, on revenues of just over $16bln.

Q2 25 US Bank Earnings Preview: By The Numbers