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Bank of Japan held steady on rates (0.5%) while laying the groundwork for a gradual policy shift. With a mild cutback in bond purchases and inflation data sending mixed signals, the BoJ continues to navigate a delicate macro environment marked by slowing global momentum and price pressures.

Friday’s high of $78.85 in our Brent crude (spot) contract and $76.08 in WTI crude (spot) contract remain the upside levels that defines the markets probability distribution that any supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict should be contained to infrastructure sites that supplies both respective domestic markets - with the price action indicative that Iranian oil and gas export facilities should remain unaffected.

It feels premature to give on the well-subscribed ‘buy the dip’ mantra just yet, but there are clear reasons to trim back on risk exposures or to layer on portfolio hedges - either through short equity index positions (to offset core portfolio longs), increasing gold longs or buying volatility.