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US Earnings Equities

Week Of 22nd April – Notable Upcoming Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
2024年4月20日
The week ahead marks the busiest of the upcoming quarterly earnings season, with around 40% of the S&P 500 by market cap set to report. Some of the most notable (excluding the ‘Magnificent Seven’) upcoming reports are previewed, by the numbers, in this note.

PepsiCo (PEP, 11am BST/6am ET, 23rd April):

PEP trades just above the flat-line on a YTD basis, having gained around 2.5% at the time of writing, around half of the YTD gain made by the benchmark S&P 500. The stock is the 29th largest by weight in the index, while also being the 13th largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a 1.75% weight in the latter. Options imply a move of +/-2.4% in the stock, within 1 standard deviation of confidence, in the 24 hours following the earnings release. Recent reports have consistently surprised to the upside of EPS expectations, with the last downside surprise coming in Q4 18, though the prior report, in Q4 23, did mark the first time in six reports that the share price ended the day following the earnings release in negative territory. For Q1 24, consensus expect an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.52, on quarterly revenues just under $18.1bln.

Preview

Visa (V, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 23rd April):

Visa trade +3.6% YTD, marginally underperforming the S&P 500, with the stock having pulled back around 7% from its mid-March highs. In terms of index weightings, V stands as the 14th largest in the S&P 500, with a weight of around 1%, while also being a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, possessing a 4.7% weight, and being the 7th largest constituent, of the price-weighted index. Derivatives price a move of +/-3.25% in the stock, in the day following the earnings report. Recent post-earnings performance has been somewhat mixed, with an even split between daily gains and declines in the 24 hours after the last 8 earnings reports, despite having beaten consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q1 20. This time around, quarterly adjusted diluted EPS is seen at $2.44, on quarterly revenues of $8.62bln.

Preview

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO, 11am BST/6am ET, 24th April):

TMO sits +2.6% since the turn of the year, marginally beating the +1.8% YTD gain notched by the S&P 500 healthcare sector. In the S&P 500 on the whole, TMO stand as the 34th largest constituent, with a weighting of just over 0.5%. Options contracts price a move of +/-2.35% in the stock in the day following earnings, with the last 2 quarterly reports in a row having seen a 1-day decline of around 5% following the figures being released, despite the stock beating EPS expectations on both occasions. For Q1 24, consensus sees adjusted EPS at $4.72, on revenues of $10.18bln.

Preview

IBM (IBM, 9:10pm BST/4:10pm ET, 24th April):

IBM trades just over 11% higher YTD, outperforming both the 4% YTD gain in the S&P 500, and the 3.1% gain notched by the Information Technology sector. In terms of weightings, the stock has a relatively modest 0.4% weight in the S&P 500, though does stand as the 13th largest in the price-weighted Dow, with around a 3.2% weight in the index. Options, with a 68.2% degree of confidence, price a move of +/-5.4% in the stock, in the 24 hours following the earnings release. Recent post-earnings performance has been strong, with the last 4 straight quarterly reports having seen a rally in the 24 hours following the release, while quarterly EPS has surprised to the upside of analyst expectations in every quarter since Q2 22. For Q1 24, consensus sees adjusted diluted EPS at $1.58, on revenues of $14.56bln.

Preview

Merck (MRK, 11:30am BST/6:30am ET, 25th April):

Pharma giant Merck trades around 15% higher YTD, standing as the 7th best performer in the Healthcare sector in 2024, while having gained more than 3x the 4% YTD advance made by the S&P 500. In the index, MRK stands as the 20th largest stock, with a weight of 0.75%. Over earnings, options imply a move of approx. +/-3% in the 24 hours following the figures release. While the stock has rallied in the day following the last two quarterly reports in a row, post-earnings performance prior to this is substantially more mixed, despite consistently beating quarterly EPS expectations since Q3 21. This quarter, the sell-side sees adjusted EPS at $1.86, with revenues at $15.23bln.

Preview

Intel (INTC, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 25th April):

INTC has endured a torrid time in 2024, trading around 32% lower YTD, a performance which sees the stock rank as the 4th worst performer in the S&P 500 this year, and as the worst performer in the Information Technology sector. From weightings perspective, INTC is the 53rd largest in the S&P, with around an 0.35% weight, while also being the 22nd largest weight in the Nasdaq 100, as well as the stock being a Dow constituent. Over earnings, options price a move of +/-6.7%. Intel has surprised to the upside of quarterly EPS expectations for four quarters in a row, with the stock having rallied in the 24 hours following the earnings release on three of those four occasions. For Q1 24, consensus expects quarterly EPS of $0.13, on revenues of $12.72bln.

Preview

Chevron (CVX, 11:15am BST/6:15am ET, 26th April):

CVX trades around 7% higher YTD, underperforming the roughly 14% gain made by the S&P 500 Energy sector, though still representing outperformance compared to the benchmark index. In the index, Chevron stands as the 23rd largest constituent, with an 0.65% weighting, while the stock is also a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with around a 2.75% weight in the price-weighted index. Options contracts imply a move of +/-2.2% in the stock in the 24 hours following the quarterly earnings release. While CVX has beaten consensus EPS expectations in three of the last four quarters, the 1-day price return has been an even split between gains and losses over the same time period. In Q1 24, quarterly EPS is expected at $2.91, on $49.08bln of quarterly revenues, according to consensus estimates.

Preview

Exxon Mobil (XOM, 11:30am BST/6:30am ET, 26th April):

Exxon Mobil has rallied around 20% YTD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, while standing as the 6th best performer in the Energy sector this year. From a weightings perspective, XOM is the 12th largest stock in the S&P, with a weight of around 1.1%. In the 24 hours following the quarterly earnings print, derivatives price a move of +/-1.8% in the stock, which has notched a daily decline following the last three consecutive quarterly reports, with EPS surprising to the downside on two of those occasions. This time around, consensus expects quarterly adjusted EPS at $2.18, and quarterly revenues just shy of $79.9bln.

Preview

AbbVie (ABBV, 12:35pm BST/7:35am ET, 26th April):

Pharma giant AbbVie stand as the 22nd largest stock in the S&P 500, with shares having rallied just over 7% since the turn of the year, outperforming both the Healthcare sector, and the index at large. Over quarterly earnings, options imply a move of +/-4%, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. While ABBV has beaten quarterly EPS expectations in all but one quarter since Q1 19, recent earnings have been received negatively by the market, with the stock closing lower on the day following 5 of the last 8 quarterly reports. In Q1 24, consensus sees adjusted EPS at $2.22, on revenues of $11.94bln.

Preview

Note – all figures in this article are correct as of 20th April 2024; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

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