Markets Hold Firm Amid Powell Tensions, Crypto Votes, and Netflix Earnings Risk

Despite a mild shift in tone toward bearishness early in the session, US equity markets held firm, with the S&P500 reclaiming early losses and closing near the highs, up +0.3% on the cash index.

• The early dip into 6201 in the S&P500 was sharply rejected, helped by a 1.1% sell-off in the USD (DXY), after reports emerged that Trump was considering firing Powell.
• However, later headlines clarified that Trump was not actively pursuing Powell’s removal, which, paired with a cooler core PPI (2.6% vs 2.7% y/y), helped US Treasuries rally and Fed cut expectations for September rise back to 59%.

📈 S&P Futures Signal Risk Appetite

S&P500 futures briefly broke below the 7-day range but quickly reversed off the 6246 range low, with bulls reclaiming control. A break through 6308.75 in the next session could set the stage for new all-time highs (ATHs). Breadth was strong: 68% of S&P500 names closed higher Sector leaders: Healthcare, REITs, and Financials

🎯 Eyes on Earnings: TSMC & Netflix Ahead

Netflix (NFLX) is the high-stakes event for momentum traders. With the stock up +40.3% YTD and outperforming the S&P500 by 33pp, expectations are sky-high. The street anticipates a beat and raise, and with consistent outperformance in recent quarters, NFLX needs to deliver above the already-rosy consensus. TSMC results also carry weight, especially for traders watching Nvidia, given TSMC’s key role in semiconductor supply chains.

🏦 Powell vs Trump: Risk Volatility, Not Policy Yet

The Trump vs Powell saga continues to stoke volatility. While no formal action has been taken, markets rightly treat Trump’s social posts as trial balloons, gauging sentiment on potential moves.

• The bar to dismiss Powell remains high, with legal and procedural hurdles.
• However, even the threat of a shadow chair or increased political influence on the Fed could generate renewed USD volatility and:
  • Gold upside
  • Demand for crypto hedges
  • Foreign investment hedging

🪙 Crypto, Commodities, and Cross-Asset Flows

Platinum led commodity gains, surging +4% and targeting a breakout through $1424. A close above this level would signal continuation of the bull trend. Gold stalled at $3360, with sellers capping rallies. Bulls need a close above $3360 to push for $3400 and $3430.

Bitcoin rallied back to $120K, with long positions reclaiming intraday control. Ethereum outperformed in what traders are calling “beast mode,” leading into “Crypto Week.” While the House rejected a procedural vote on the stablecoin bill, crypto markets remain highly attentive, viewing regulatory progress as a defining moment for the digital asset space.