• Home
  • Pro
  • Partners
  • Help and support
  • English (UK)
Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • Ways to trade
    • Spread betting

      Bet on global price movements in £ per point

    • CFD trading

      Trade on 1000s of assets without owning them

    • Pricing

      Discover our tight spreads, plus all other possible fees

    • Risk management
    • Trading accounts
    • Demo trading
    • Trading hours
    • 24-hour trading
    • Maintenance schedule
  • Markets
    • Forex

      Get great rates on majors like EUR/USD, plus minors and exotics

    • Indices

      Enjoy 24-hour pricing on the UK100, US30 and more

    • Commodities

      Trade on metals, energies & softs, with oil spreads from 2 cents

    • Shares
    • ETFs
    • Currency indices
    • Dividends for index CFDs
    • Dividends for share CFDs
    • CFD forwards
  • Trading platforms
    • TradingView

      Trade through the world-famous supercharts with great pricing

    • MetaTrader 5

      Explore the apex in trading automation with our execution tech

    • The Pepperstone platform
    • MetaTrader 4
    • cTrader
    • Trading tools
  • Market analysis
    • Navigating markets

      Latest news and analysis from our experts

    • The Daily Fix

      Your regular round-up of key events

    • Meet the analysts

      Our global team giving your trading the edge

  • About us
    • Who we are

      Pepperstone was born from the dream of making trading better

    • Company news
    • Company awards
    • Protecting clients online
    • Spread betting

      Bet on global price movements in £ per point

    • CFD trading

      Trade on 1000s of assets without owning them

    • Pricing

      Discover our tight spreads, plus all other possible fees

    • Risk management
    • Trading accounts
    • Demo trading
    • Trading hours
    • 24-hour trading
    • Maintenance schedule
    • Forex

      Get great rates on majors like EUR/USD, plus minors and exotics

    • Indices

      Enjoy 24-hour pricing on the UK100, US30 and more

    • Commodities

      Trade on metals, energies & softs, with oil spreads from 2 cents

    • Shares
    • ETFs
    • Currency indices
    • Dividends for index CFDs
    • Dividends for share CFDs
    • CFD forwards
    • TradingView

      Trade through the world-famous supercharts with great pricing

    • MetaTrader 5

      Explore the apex in trading automation with our execution tech

    • The Pepperstone platform
    • MetaTrader 4
    • cTrader
    • Trading tools
    • Navigating markets

      Latest news and analysis from our experts

    • The Daily Fix

      Your regular round-up of key events

    • Meet the analysts

      Our global team giving your trading the edge

    • Who we are

      Pepperstone was born from the dream of making trading better

    • Company news
    • Company awards
    • Protecting clients online
Apple

Super Thursday could be the one to watch

Chris Weston
Chris Weston
Head of Research
27 Jul 2020
Share
We’re a quarter of the way through Q2 earnings season and it’s been an impressive reporting season so far, at least relative to consensus expectations. Of the 127 companies (listed on the S&P500) who have detailed earnings, we’ve seen 85% of companies beating earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates, and those that have beaten have done so by an average of 15%.

67% of companies have beaten on revenue, some seven percentage points above the five-year average, with those beating doing so by an average of 2.8%.

At an aggregate level, EPS from S&P500 companies has contracted by 16.5%, while sales have declined by 8.8% - but were we expecting anything else given the backdrop by which companies were operating in Q2? In fact, by the time we see the full suite of corporates report earnings, we’re likely to have seen a 42% drop in earnings, and a 10.1% decline in sales, representing the largest decline in earnings since Q4 2008.

One aspect we had identified in our prior earning note (https://pepperstone.com/en-au/market-analysis/us-earnings-season-q2/) was whether corporates would offer increased conviction to the notion that we’re on the cusp of an earnings upgrade cycle – a message being portrayed by the bullish moves in equities (notably cyclical stocks), copper, and crude. The fact expectations for Q3 GDP sit closer to +20% also re-enforces that view that earnings are only going to improve from here.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Intel aside, overall, the breadth of companies revising earnings higher has been quite bullish and as such aggregate S&P500 forward EPS assumptions have been lifted modestly. What also appears to be clear, in the early stages of reporting, is that we have seen companies make a genuine effort to lower the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and other expenses. The bulls will point to the rising scope for increased operating leverage, predominantly in cyclical stocks likely from next year.

Outlooks have not inspired

However, earnings revision has not been lifted to the extent that offers any real conviction that we’re yet to see the remnants of a v-shaped recovery in earnings that lowers valuations to more palatable levels in the quarter ahead. The lack of forward-guidance from CEO’s and CFO’s, while hardly unsurprising given the economic backdrop, simply results in traders focusing intently on the macro, with sentiment dictated by Fed liquidity dynamics, deteriorating US-China relations, US fiscal negotiations and the economic impact of renewed COVID concerns. Sky-high valuations mean that when we hear news, the bar to a positive move in price is high.

Concentration risk is key for equity index traders

What has also emerged as earnings season has rolled on has been the influence of an ever-greater concentration risk – that being, where a handful of high growth tech names have outperformed by such a margin that they now command incredibly high index weights – this is especially true in the NAS100 where Apple, Amazon and Google represent 30% of the index. The US500 is less pronounced, but we still find just five mega-cap names represent 22% of the US500 by index weight. This is where earnings from these high-flying names really do matter.

Super Thursday could be a volatility event

When you have such incredible concentrated risk, these leadership stocks can really knock the broader market, and even resonate into other asset classes. For example, if we look to Thursday we see Apple, Amazon and Google reporting – if they miss the mark, which seems unlikely given their pedigree, but we could see the NAS100 and US500 futures trade lower, which, could, in turn, push the USD, CHF and JPY higher in appreciation. This would then hit gold and copper. Obviously, the reverse is true if the market likes what they hear, even if valuations are extreme and the bar to a positive surprise is therefore high.


Related articles

NAS100 volatility alert: three tech giants reporting July 30

NAS100 volatility alert: three tech giants reporting July 30

Apple
Microsoft
US
Your guide to this week's volatility events

Your guide to this week's volatility events

US
US500
Gold

Most read

1

The disinflationary message seen in commodities and rates markets

2

Will the BOJ be the last dovish domino to fall?

3

Trader thoughts - the conflicting forces dictating EURUSD flow

The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.

Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Other Sites

  • The Trade Off
  • Partners
  • Group
  • Careers

Ways to trade

  • Pricing
  • Trading accounts
  • Pro
  • Trading hours

Platforms

  • Trading Platforms
  • Trading tools

Markets and Symbols

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • ETFs
  • Indicies
  • Commodities
  • Currency indicies
  • CFD forwards

Analysis

  • Navigating Markets
  • The Daily Fix
  • Meet Our Analysts

Learn to trade

  • Trading guides
  • Videos
  • Webinars
Pepperstone logo
support@pepperstone.com
+448000465473+442038074724
70 Gracechurch St
London EC3V 0HR
United Kingdom
  • Legal documents
  • Privacy policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Cookie policy
  • Sitemap

© 2025 Pepperstone Limited 
Company Number 08965105 | Financial Conduct Authority Firm Registration Number 684312

Risk warning: Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Trading derivatives is risky. It isn't suitable for everyone and, in the case of Professional clients, you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. You don't own or have rights in the underlying assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn't take into account your or your client's personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Please read our legal documents and ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions. We encourage you to seek independent advice.

Pepperstone Limited is a limited company registered in England & Wales under Company Number 08965105 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Registration Number 684312). Registered office: 70 Gracechurch Street, London EC3V 0HR, United Kingdom.

The information on this site is not intended for residents of Belgium or the United States, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.