Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
Michael Brown is a seasoned, award-winning market analyst, with a record of providing pertinent commentary, analysis, and forecasting across all major asset classes, principally through a global macro focus, over a decade in the financial services industry. He frequently appears in a wide range of UK and international media, discussing major risk events, key market trends, and broader macroeconomic themes. Michael holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University.
Most recent articles
Q1 26 UK GDP Review: This Year's Peak Is Probably Already In
This morning's UK GDP report pointed to a solid pace of growth in the first quarter, though such a pace is likely to be as good as it gets for the economy this year, as downside political and geopolitical risks continue to mount.
Political Pressure Drives GBP and Gilts Lower
Markets are increasingly pricing the risks of political instability, looser fiscal policy, and persistent inflationary pressures into UK assets, in turn driving further downside in the GBP, and Gilts.
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Trump-Xi Summit Eyed With Geopolitics & Trade In Focus
President Trump is on his way to Beijing for a keenly anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi, the first meeting between the two since October 2025. Even if the summit is just a 2-day affair, the agenda is a packed one, with plenty of topics for the two to discuss, and there likely also being plenty for market participants to get their teeth into.
April 2026 US CPI: The Energy Shock Continues
April’s US CPI report pointed to further inflationary pressures making themselves known, as the impact of conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent surge in energy prices, continue to make themselves felt. The near-term policy implications of the data, though, are likely relatively limited.
Downside GBP & Gilt Risks Grow As Political Uncertainty Mounts
Rising political uncertainty is set to re-emerge as a key driver of UK assets, with mounting pressure on PM Starmer increasing downside risks for GBP and Gilts.
Local Elections Fallout Sees UK Assets Face Up To Fractured Political Future
Labour’s dire local election results have weakened PM Starmer politically, but for now markets appear relieved that an immediate leadership challenge remains unlikely.
April 2026 US Employment Report: Solid Payrolls Print Keeps Fed In ‘Wait & See’ Mode
Headline nonfarm payrolls again topped expectations in April, though the Household Survey was somewhat softer. Regardless, the Fed will remain in ‘wait and see’ mode for the time being, with the inflation side of the mandate continuing to take priority.
Equity Rally Rolls On With Pain Trade Remaining Higher
Risk appetite has roared back as signs of a potential US-Iran agreement spark another leg higher for equities, though the ‘pain trade’ remains higher for now.
JPY Surges Again Amid Further Intervention Speculation
Another sudden round of JPY strength has sparked speculation that the MoF have intervened in the market yet again, though despite these efforts to prop up the currency continuing, they remain unlikely to change the longer-run trend, absent a change in the fundamental backdrop.
Preview For The April 2026 US Jobs Report
This Friday brings our latest update on the state of the US labour market, which has remained mired in a ‘no fire, no hire’ dynamic for some time now. While the figures are unlikely to materially impact the near-term Fed policy outlook, which hinges largely on geopolitical events, the report will nonetheless warrant close attention, especially if any signs of economic uncertainty denting labour demand begin to emerge.
JPY Jumps As ‘Yentervention’ Returns
The JPY has surged over the last couple of sessions as the MoF appear to have finally stepped in to prop up the currency, tilting the risk-reward drastically against JPY bears in the short-term, albeit while being unlikely to change the longer-run trend.
April 2026 ECB Review: Staying On Hold
The ECB, as expected, stood pat at the April meeting, reiterating a ‘data-dependent’ approach to policy moving forward.
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1. Data for the Pepperstone Group, correct as at October 2025.