Q4 24 ‘Magnificent Seven’ Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Tesla (TSLA, 9:05pm GMT/4:05pm ET, 29^th January)

Tesla has begun 2025 strongly, advancing around 5% in the first few weeks of the year, with the stock having more than doubled in value over the last twelve months, vastly outperforming the S&P 500 over both time periods. Naturally, the EV manufacturer remains an index heavyweight, standing as the 6^th largest stock in the S&P 500, and in the Nasdaq 100, with a chunky 4% weighting in the latter. For the upcoming report, options price a sizeable move of +/-9.2% in the following 24 hours, with the stock having seen double-digit % price swings following each of the last four earnings releases, last time out rallying over 20%. In Q4 24, consensus expects adj. diluted EPS of $0.75, on revenues of $27.4bln.

Microsoft (MSFT, 9:05pm GMT/4:05pm ET, 29^th January)

Microsoft trades largely flat on a YTD basis, having traded in relatively lacklustre fashion over the last year, adding just 8%. Nevertheless, MSFT remains the 3^rd largest stock in each of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Recent earnings results have been strong, with the firm surprising to the upside of consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q4 22. This time around, with options pricing a move of +/-3.9% in the stock, Street estimates point to adjusted EPS of $3.13, on revenues of $68.9bln.

Meta Platforms (META, 9:05pm GMT/4:05pm ET, 29^th January)

Meta has begun the year well, adding around 5.5% since the start of January, building upon the over 50% gain seen in 2024, with the stock standing as the second best performer in the Communication Services sector – after Netflix – over the last 12 months. Meta stands as the 5^th largest stock in the S&P 500, with a 2.6% weight, while also being the 7^th largest in the Nasdaq 100, with a 3.4% weight in the tech-heavy benchmark. Derivatives tied to the stock point to a chunky implied move of +/-7.4% in the 24 hours following the Q4 release, where consensus expects diluted EPS of $6.75, on quarterly revenues of $46.9bln.

Apple (AAPL, 9:30pm GMT/4:30pm ET, 30^th January)

A bite has been taken out of Apple’s stock over the early part of 2025, with the iPhone maker trading over 10% lower amid ongoing concerns over deteriorating Chinese demand. Nevertheless, AAPL remains the 2^nd largest stock by weight in the S&P 500, as well as the largest in the Nasdaq 100, while also being a Dow constituent. Despite having consistently beaten consensus EPS expectations since Q2 23, the stock has declined following four of those reports, with options this time around pricing a move of +/-3.7% in the day following Q4 earnings. In terms of expectations, consensus sees adjusted EPS of $2.35, on revenues of $124.3bln.

Alphabet (GOOG, 9:05pm GMT/4:05pm ET, 4^th February)

Alphabet sit around 5% higher this year, and around 35% to the upside over the last 12 months, a performance broadly in line with the Comm. Services sector at large. Combining the class ‘A’ and ‘C’ shares, Alphabet has around a 4% weighting in the S&P 500, and a near-6% weight in the Nasdaq 100. Options tied to the stock imply a move of +/-5.5% over the upcoming earnings release, with Alphabet having beat consensus EPS expectations consecutively since Q1 23. This time around, consensus expects diluted EPS at $2.13, on revenues of $96.6bln ($81.6bln ex-traffic acquisition cost).  

Amazon (AMZN, 9pm GMT/4pm ET, 6^th February) – subject to confirmation via Amazon IR

AMZN has gained almost 50% over the last 12 months, considerably outperforming the benchmark S&P 500, and standing as the 10^th best performer in the Consumer Discretionary sector over that period. The stock stands as the 4^th largest in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while also being a Dow constituent. Recent pedigree has been strong, with the stock having rallied following 5 of the last 6 quarterly reports. This time around, options price a move of +/-2.5%, with expectations pointing towards diluted EPS of $1.50, on revenues of $187.3bln.

Nvidia (NVDA, 9:20pm GMT/4:20pm ET, 26^th February)

Nvidia remains a market darling, with the stock having gained over 135% in the last 12 months, being the 7^th best performer in the S&P 500 over that period. The stock still stands as the largest, by weight, in the S&P 500, while also being the 2^nd largest in the Nasdaq 100. Furthermore, the stock was added to the Dow last November. While the stock has only missed consensus EPS expectations once since the start of 2020, recent post-earnings performance has been far from stellar. This time around, options point to a move of +/-7.9% in the stock, implying a swing in market cap of around +/- $282bln. For this reporting quarter, consensus expects adjusted EPS of $0.84, on revenues of $38.3bln.