A Look Ahead To Q2 25 US Earnings Season

According to estimates compiled by FactSet, aggregate earnings growth for the S&P 500 is expected at 5.0% YoY in the second quarter which, if realised, would mark the 8^th consecutive quarter of growth, albeit also the slowest such pace since the final quarter of 2023. In terms of revenue, growth is seen at 4.2% YoY, if realised marking the 19^th straight consecutive quarter of growth.

Coming into earnings season, though, at least per traditional valuation metrics, the benchmark S&P 500 remains ‘overvalued’, with the forward 12-month P/E ratio sitting at 21.9, above both its 5- and 10-year averages.

Drilling down to a sectoral level, expectations are a touch more mixed.

Six of the index’s eleven sectors are set to report annual earnings growth, with Communication Services and Information Technology leading the way. On the other hand, Energy is set to lead YoY earnings declines. Revenue growth expectations are considerably more positive across the board, however Energy is again seen lagging here.

Heading into reporting season, though, guidance has, as usual, trended in a negative direction, with earnings estimates having fallen around 4.1% through the second quarter, considerably above the 10-year average. This, though, shouldn’t be especially concerning, given the long-standing tendency of firms to ‘massage and beat’ those depressed expectations.

Consequently, along with the figures themselves, market participants will also pay close attention to guidance that firms issue along with their reports, particularly considering the still-uncertain macroeconomic environment, and ever-changing tariff landscape. As has been the case for some time now, the bar for stocks to unlock post-earnings upside is a relatively high one, requiring both beats vs. consensus, and guidance upgrades, for durable rallies to take place.

As usual, earnings season will get underway with the major Wall St banks kicking things off, acting as a bellwether for the remainder of the season. The outlook here remains somewhat mixed, with M&A volumes still relatively subdued given the uncertain environment, despite having picked-up from the slump in Q1. At the same time, the Fed’s ‘wait and see’ approach on rates should see NIMs remain solid, though the degree of provisions made will be worth watching closely, given increasing jitters over the potentially fragile state of the labour market.

Besides the banks, earnings from the tech megacaps will also be closely watched, even if the ‘magnificent seven’ term is being thrown around a lot less this year, than in 2023 and 2024.

The group’s performance has been incredibly mixed this year, nothing like the market dominance seen in recent times, with stock-specific factors playing a much more significant role – Tesla driven lower by the ongoing ‘Trump vs. Musk’ feud; Apple facing headwinds amid incredibly sluggish progress on the AI front; while, in contrast, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia have all performed well, as they continue to make the most of momentum behind the AI theme, and in the latter case, an apparent never-ending amount of increasing CapEx.

Taking a step back, earnings season will be a pivotal test for the market, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 entering reporting season at, or very close to, record highs. The bull case to date has been built on cooler trade rhetoric, strong underlying economic growth, and a solid pace of earnings growth. Were this latter pillar to be threatened, some near-term headwinds to risk could emerge, though any weakness is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity.