Q2 24 ‘Magnificent Seven’ Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

Alphabet (GOOGL, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 23 July)

Alphabet trade 27% higher YTD, vastly outperforming the S&P 500, while also being the third best performing stock in the Communication Services sector, behind just META and NFLX. In terms of index weights, combining Alphabet’s Class A and Class C listings gives the company around a 4.1% weight in the S&P 500, the fourth largest of any firm, and a weight of 5.3% in the Nasdaq 100, also the fourth largest of any company (note – company, not stock, weighting). Derivatives imply a move of +/- 5.6% in the Class A stock in the 24 hours following the earnings release, with the last four quarterly reports having seen an even split of post-report gains, and losses. In terms of expectations, consensus sees Q2 24 diluted EPS at $1.84, on revenues of $84.4bln.

Tesla (TSLA, 9:10pm BST/4:10pm ET, 23 July)

TSLA has had a volatile year thus far, having recently pared significant losses, to now trade just shy of 4% softer on a YTD basis, albeit continuing to underperform the S&P 500 more broadly, which has added just over 15% thus far in 2024. In terms of index weights, Musk’s EV manufacturer constitutes around 1.1% of the S&P 500, and 2.3% of the Nasdaq 100, standing as the 15^th, and 10^th, largest stock in each, respectively. Options imply a move of +/- 7.8% in the stock in the 24 hours following the earnings release, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. Recent post-earnings performance has been mixed, with Q1 24 marking the first time in six quarterly reports that TSLA had ended the post-earnings session in the green. This time around, consensus expects quarterly adjusted diluted EPS of $0.58, on revenues of $24.1bln.

Microsoft (MSFT, 9:10pm BST/4:10pm ET, 30 July)

MSFT trades just over 16% higher YTD, a performance broadly in line with that of the S&P 500, though the stock has underperformed the Information Technology sector, which trades just under 27% higher since the turn of the year. Nevertheless, MSFT remains the biggest single stock in both the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100, with an index weight of 7.3%, and 8.7%, respectively; furthermore, MSFT is a Dow constituent, being the 3^rd largest stock in the price-weighted index. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/- 4.3%, though recent pedigree is somewhat mixed, with a 50:50 split of post-earnings advances, and declines, over the last 8 reports. Consensus, for this quarter, sees adjusted diluted EPS at $2.94, on quarterly revenues of $64.5bln.

Meta Platforms (META, 9:05pm BST/4:05pm ET, 31 July)

Zuckerberg’s META trade a whopping 35% higher this year, being not only the best performing stock in the S&P 500’s Communication Services sector, but also the 23^rd best performer in the index at large. Speaking of the S&P, META holds a weight of around 2.4% in the benchmark index, the 5^th largest, while being the 6^th largest stock in the Nasdaq 100, with a weight of around 4.5%. Derivatives imply a move of +/- 8.6% in META stock in the 24 hours following this quarter’s earnings release, with 1 standard deviation of confidence. For Q2 24, consensus sees quarterly diluted EPS at $4.74, on revenues of $38.3bln.

Amazon (AMZN, 9pm BST/4pm ET, 1 Aug)

AMZN trades around 20.5% higher in 2024, outperforming both the S&P 500, and the 6.6% gain in the Consumer Discretionary sector, of which Amazon stands as the 9^th best performer. In terms of index weightings, AMZN stands as the 4^th largest single stock in the S&P 500^th a 3.7% weight, while being the 5^th largest in the Nasdaq 100, possessing a weighting just over 5%. AMZN is also a Dow constituent, being the 15^th largest stock in the price-weighted index. Over this quarter’s earnings release, options imply a move of +/- 7.0%, in the 24 hours following the release. Recent post-earnings performance has been strong, with the stock ending the session following the quarterly report in the green for the last four quarters in a row. This time, consensus expects quarterly diluted EPS at $1.03, on revenues of $148.74bln.

Apple (AAPL, 9:30pm BST/4:30pm ET, 1 Aug)

Apple trade around 17% higher YTD, a performance broadly in line with that of the S&P 500, though substantially below the 26.5% gain seen by the Info Tech sector at large. Nonetheless, AAPL remains a behemoth in terms of index weights, being the 2^nd largest single stock in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, with a weight of 6.6% and 8.3% respectively. The stock is also a Dow constituent, being the 12^th largest component of the index, with a 3.5% weight. Derivative contracts imply a relatively modest move of +/- 3.4% in AAPL stock over this quarter’s earnings release. Recent pedigree post-earnings is somewhat mixed, with last quarter’s report being the first in four after which AAPL stock had ended the day in the green. This quarter, consensus expects quarterly diluted EPS at $1.34, on revenues of $84.4bln.

Nvidia (NVDA, 9:20pm BST/4:20pm ET, 28 Aug)

NVDA round out ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings at the end of August, continuing to be viewed by many as the ‘most important stock in the world’. The firm trades just under 140% higher YTD, at the time of writing, being the second best performer in the S&P 500, behind only SMCI. More broadly, NVDA stands as the third largest stock by weight in both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100, with index weights of 6.4% and 8.1% respectively. Options imply a move of +/- 10.2% in NVDA stock in the 24 hours following the earnings release, representing a swing, in market cap terms, of around +/- $290bln. Recent post-earnings performance has been strong, with NVDA ending the day following earnings in positive territory following five of the last six reports. This time, consensus sees quarterly adjusted diluted EPS at $0.64, on revenues of $28.5bln.