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Analysis

Equities

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi & More Set To Report

Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
Oct 6, 2024
All you need to know ahead of US bank earnings, which kick off Q3 reporting season on Friday 11th October.

JPMorgan (JPM, 11:55am BST/6:55am ET, 11 Oct)

JPM trades +24% YTD, marginally outperforming the broader financials sector, and the S&P 500 at large. The stock stands as the 12th largest in the S&P 500, with a 1.2% weighting, while also being the 14th largest constituent in the Dow. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/- 2.85%, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. While JPM has beaten consensus EPS expectations in every quarter for the last two years, the stock has ended earnings day lower on the last three straight occasions. This time around, consensus expects quarterly adjusted EPS at $4.01, on revenues of $41.9bln.

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Wells Fargo (WFC, 11:55am BST/6:55am ET, 11 Oct)

Wells Fargo trades just under 16% higher YTD, underperforming the financials sector, and the S&P 500 on the whole. In terms of index weightings, WFC remains the 44th largest stock in the S&P 500, with a weight of around 0.4%. Derivatives imply a move of +/- 4% in WFC stock in the 24 hours following the Q3 report, though the stock has slipped following five of the last six quarterly earnings releases. For Q3 24, consensus sees adjusted EPS at $1.28, on revenues of $20.4bln.

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Bank of America (BAC, 11:45am BST/6:45am ET, 15 Oct)

Trading around 20% higher YTD, BofA’s performance has been broadly in line with that of the benchmark S&P 500 index, within which the stock is the 28th largest constituent, with an 0.55% weighting. For this quarter’s report, options contracts imply a move of +/- 3.65% over the release, with the firm having beaten consensus expectations in every quarter since Q2 22, and the stock having rallied following all but 2 reports over that period. Expectations, for Q3 24, see adjusted EPS at $0.77, on quarterly revenues of $25.4bln.

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Goldman Sachs (GS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 15 Oct)

GS trades almost 30% higher YTD, outperforming both the financials sector, and the S&P 500 as a whole. In terms of index weights, Goldman stand as the 61st largest constituent within the index, though in the price-weighted Dow, GS is the 2nd largest constituent, with a sizeable 7.6% weighting. Options price a move of +/- 3.5% in GS stock in the 24 hours following the Q3 24 report, with the last three quarterly reports having sparked a post-earnings rally. This time around, consensus sees adjusted EPS at $7.66, on quarterly net revenue of $12bln.

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Citi (C, 1pm BST/8am ET, 15 Oct)

Citi’s performance has been decidedly average YTD, with the stock having gained just under 22%, a performance almost bang in line with that of the broader S&P 500, within which C stands as the 77th largest stock, with an 0.25% weight. Derivatives contracts price a move of +/- 3.75% in the stock in the 24 hours following the upcoming report, though four of the last five such releases have seen the stock notch a post-earnings decline, the worst such run since mid-2021. In Q3 24, consensus expects quarterly adjusted EPS at $1.32, on net revenues of $19.8bln.

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Morgan Stanley (MS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 16 Oct)

MS has also underperformed this year, trading around 16% higher on a YTD basis, as the post-Gorman transition continues. The stock stands as the 70th largest in the S&P 500 on a weightings basis, with an 0.25% weight broadly equivalent to that possessed by Citi. Options price a move of +/- 3.9% in the stock in the day following the Q3 earnings release. In terms of pedigree, quarterly EPS has surprised to the upside of consensus expectations in every quarter since Q3 22, though the stock has a patchy record of 5 gains and 3 losses in the 24 hours following earnings over that period. For the upcoming figures, consensus expects adjusted EPS of $1.60, on revenues of $14.3bln.

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