Q2 24 US Bank Earnings Preview: By The Numbers

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, 12pm BST/7am ET, 12 Jul):

JPM trades +22% YTD, vastly outperforming the 11% gain notched by the broader financials sector, though underperforming some banking peers. In terms of index weightings, JPM stand as the 11^th largest in the S&P 500, with a weight just over 1%, while also being the 14^th largest constituent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Options imply a move of +/- 3.1% in the stock in the 24 hours following the earnings release, with a 68.2% degree of confidence. In terms of pedigree, JPM have beaten quarterly EPS expectations for the last 7 quarters in a row, though the stock has fallen following each of the last two earnings reports, in Q4 23 and Q1 24. This time around, consensus sees quarterly adjusted EPS at $4.28, on net revenues of $50.2bln.

Wells Fargo (WFC, 12pm BST/7am ET, 12 Jul):

Wells Fargo trades around 21% higher YTD, also outperforming the broader financials sector, with the stock standing as the 36^th largest in the S&P 500, with an index weight of approx. 0.45%. Over the Q2 earnings release, derivatives imply a move of +/- 4.4% in the 24 hours following the figures crossing news wires, though the stock has fallen following four of the last five quarterly reports, despite having beaten consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q3 22. For Q2 24, consensus expects quarterly adjusted EPS at $1.29, on revenue of $20.28bln.

Citi (C, 1pm BST/8am ET, 12 Jul):

Citi trade +30% YTD, standing as the best performing major bank in the S&P 500 in 2024. C is the 78^th largest stock in the index, with a relatively low 0.25% weighting. Over earnings, options imply a move of +/- 3%, with 1 standard deviation of confidence. Recent post-earnings performance has been relatively mixed, with 3 post-earnings declines following the last four quarterly reports, despite having only missed quarterly EPS expectations twice since the start of 2020. This time around, consensus sees adjusted EPS at $1.39, on net revenues of $21.1bln.

Goldman Sachs (GS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 15 Jul):

Goldman trade just shy of 25% higher this year, again outperforming the broader financials sector. GS stands as just the 58^th largest stock in the S&P 500, with an 0.3% index weighting, however has a much more significant 7.7% weight in the Dow, being the 2^nd largest constituent in the price-weighted index. Over the earnings print, options imply a move of +/- 3.5% in the stock, in the 24 hours following the figures being released. Recent pedigree is relatively strong, with three of the last four quarterly reports being greeted with a post-earnings rally. Expectations this time around are for an adjusted EPS figure of $8.37, on net revenue of $12.41bln.

Bank of America (BAC, 11:45am BST/6:45am ET, 16 Jul):

BofA trade just shy of 25% higher YTD, comfortably outperforming the financials sector, and the S&P 500 as a whole. In terms of index weights, BAC stand as the 26^th largest in the S&P 500, with a weight of 0.6%. Over the Q2 report, options price a move of +/- 3.5%, with a 68.2% degree of confidence, in the 24 hours following the print. Recent post-earnings performance is somewhat mixed, with the stock having ended the day in the red following the last 2 quarterly reports, despite having beaten consensus EPS expectations in every quarter since Q2 22. This time, for Q2 24, consensus expects adjusted EPS at $0.80, on revenues of $25.32bln.

Morgan Stanley (MS, 12:30pm BST/7:30am ET, 16 Jul):

MS trade around 11% higher YTD, broadly in line with the S&P 500 at large, albeit substantially underperforming the financials sector. The stock stands as the 76^th largest in the benchmark, with a weight just shy of 0.3%. Options price a move of +/- 3.6% in the 24 hours following the earnings release, with recent post-report performance being mixed, with 2 gains and 2 losses over the last twelve months. In Q2 24, consensus expects adjusted EPS at $1.65, on revenues of $14.27bln.