Oil surging higher - where to next?
Crude tagged $115 intraday and it now seems like $120 is in the crosshairs. There is substantial call buying volume taking place at the $120 strike level. This will lead to market makers being short gamma and crude being prone to price squeezes higher. Although sanctions have not been specifically placed on Russian crude, there is a complete dearth of any buyers, with steep discounts on Urals not being enough to entice interest. The OPEC+ meeting today is likely to rubber stamp a 400k bpd increase in supply. So no surprises on that front. The oil price is a key input into the inflation debate. With stagflation fears rising fast and furiously, this is a key asset to keep an eye on.
The chartshows price moving in almost a straight line vertically. There is serious divergence from the moving averages, even the shorter term 21-day EMA, which has been a useful tool as a form of dynamic support. $120 is definitely a target on the upside, while weakness could find price falling back towards $100. The RSI is substantially overbought with a reading of just shy of 84.
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