Crypto Buyers are M.I.A: Why Bitcoin and Ethereum target key support levels

Would-be buyers are stepping aside, allowing the sellers to exert greater control over the price action to push markets lower with relatively little resistance.

Granted, there have been signs of stress. More than $1.6 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across crypto exchanges in the latest sell-off, the largest liquidation event since 5 February. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience outflows, and sentiment has clearly deteriorated.

(Source: Glassnode)

However, the realised volatility in both Bitcoin and Ethereum remains below year-to-date averages, and the implied vol for IBIT 1-month put options is only modestly higher than in calls. For a market supposedly experiencing extreme fear, volatility remains remarkably subdued.

The issue appears less about panic and more about a lack of compelling catalysts capable of reversing the current trend.

Crypto Faces an Opportunity Cost Problem

Markets compete for a finite pool of capital.

At present, investors are increasingly finding better opportunities elsewhere.

The AI and technology ecosystem continues to attract significant inflows, with stocks such as Marvell, Dell and HP posting powerful momentum-driven rallies. Investors naturally want to be long assets that are working, and right now that capital is flowing towards equities with strong earnings momentum and persistent uptrends.

This creates an opportunity cost problem for crypto.

Rather than buying Bitcoin or Ethereum today, many investors believe they may be able to buy them at lower levels tomorrow. That mindset becomes self-reinforcing.

As buyers pull resting bids lower in the order book and become increasingly patient, sellers gain control of the tape and prices continue to drift lower. The result is a market characterised by weak demand rather than aggressive liquidation.

A Growing Liquidity Drain

Crypto is also competing against several significant capital-raising events.

The expected SpaceX IPO, Google's reported US$80 billion capital raising, and potential future IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI all represent substantial demands on investor capital.

While these events are unlikely to directly drain liquidity from crypto markets, they provide investors with alternative opportunities to deploy capital into some of the most compelling growth stories available.

Once again, crypto faces an opportunity cost challenge.

The Michael Saylor Narrative

Some market participants have attributed the recent weakness to reports that Michael Saylor's Strategy sold Bitcoin into the market.

However, this explanation appears overstated.

Strategy's reported sale of 32 BTC from a holding of approximately 843,000 BTC is effectively a rounding error. Furthermore, Saylor had already signalled that limited sales could occur in previous communications.

The market's reaction to these headlines says more about current confidence levels than it does about the actual impact of the transaction itself.

When sentiment is fragile, even insignificant developments can become catalysts for selling.

Crypto's Inflation Hedge Narrative Is Being Tested

The recent US-Iran conflict has also challenged crypto's often-promoted role as an inflation hedge.

During periods when geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns have risen, traders have generally found better-performing alternatives elsewhere.

Gold, energy and certain equity sectors have often delivered stronger price performance, reducing the appeal of Bitcoin's scarcity narrative.

As a result, crypto's perceived edge as an inflation hedge has come under increasing scrutiny.

Ethereum's Fundamentals Remain Strong

Ethereum presents a particularly interesting case.

The market is once again testing the lows established between February and March, levels that successfully held following the 46% sell-off seen between January and February.

Fundamentally, the Ethereum story remains compelling.

Transaction activity continues to sit near record highs. Institutional interest in tokenised markets, stablecoins and real-world assets remains exceptionally strong. Many investors believe Ethereum will be a major beneficiary as traditional financial assets migrate onto blockchain infrastructure.

The growth of stablecoins, tokenised Treasury products and real-world assets all support the long-term investment case for Ethereum.

Yet despite these favourable fundamentals, investors remain reluctant to step in and reverse the downtrend that has been in place since 6 May.

Price action ultimately remains the final arbiter.

A weekly close below $1,800 could prove significant and potentially attract further selling from momentum-focused traders.

Bitcoin Remains Technically Weak

Bitcoin continues to print lower lows and remains firmly below its declining five-day exponential moving average.

Since breaking support at $75,870, the move lower has been relentless.

The next major support zone sits just above $64,000, corresponding to the lows established between February and April.

Given how technically oversold the market has become, a bounce from these levels would not be surprising.

However, at this stage any recovery would likely be viewed as a technical bounce rather than evidence of a sustainable trend reversal.

What Could Change the Narrative?

The market is waiting for a catalyst.

Potential positive developments include:

• Progress on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in the US Senate

• Accelerating institutional adoption of stablecoins and real-world assets

• A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran that improves broader risk sentiment

• A reversal in ETF outflows and renewed institutional demand

Any of these developments could help restore confidence and provide a foundation for a more durable recovery.

The Bottom Line

Crypto remains one of the purest momentum-driven asset classes in financial markets.

When buyers return, price persistence can be powerful and trends can develop rapidly. However, for now, buyers continue to step aside.

The market is not yet showing evidence of a durable floor, and rallies continue to look vulnerable to selling pressure.

Rather than attempting to pick the exact bottom, traders may be better served waiting for buyers to reassert control, establish a clear low and demonstrate renewed momentum.

Until that happens, the path of least resistance appears lower, and further downside in Bitcoin and Ethereum cannot be ruled out.