The Primary Market – the halving primarily affects the mining community and could have implications here.
We can monitor how the market sees the earnings impact through the big listed miners:
The Secondary Market – once a miner has the coins, they can sell these into the market, this is where traders can then speculate on the direction through a crypto exchange or through a derivative (CFDs)
(Source: Plan B and Bitbo)
The bottom line – with reduced supply seen over time, it really comes down to demand…. If we think there will be good demand – either through an increased adoption story, further inflows into ETFs, changes in regulation or through a move towards a ‘store of value’ then BTC has significant upside… for now, if the NAS100 was to correct 10%, and bond yields continue to head higher then the halving will be overlooked and BTC will head lower.
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