• Home
  • Pro
  • Partners
  • Help and support
  • English
  • عربي
Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • Ways to trade
    • Trading accounts

      Choose from two account types depending on your strategy

    • Premium clients

      Exclusive rewards and bespoke benefits for high-vol traders

    • Pricing

      Discover our tight spreads, plus all other possble fees

    • Professional
    • Active trader program
    • Refer a friend
    • Trading hours
    • 24-hour trading
    • Maintenance schedule
    • Risk management
  • Markets
    • Forex

      Get great rates on majors like EUR/USD, plus minors and exotics

    • Commodities

      Trade on metals, energies & softs, with oil spreads from 2 cents

    • Cryptocurrencies

      Speculate on Bitcoin, Ether and more, with a trusted broker

    • Shares
    • ETFs
    • Indices
    • Currency indices
    • Dividends for index CFDs
    • Dividends for share CFDs
    • CFD forwards
  • Trading platforms
    • TradingView

      Trade through the world-famous supercharts with great pricing

    • MetaTrader 5

      Explore the apex in trading automation with our execution tech

    • The Pepperstone platform
    • MetaTrader 4
    • cTrader
    • Trading tools
    • Integrations
  • Market analysis
    • Navigating markets

      Latest news and analysis from our experts

    • The Daily Fix

      Your regular round-up of key events

    • Meet the analysts

      Our global team giving your trading the edge

  • About us
    • Who we are

      Pepperstone was born from the dream of making trading better

    • Company news
    • Company awards
    • Protecting clients online
    • Trading accounts

      Choose from two account types depending on your strategy

    • Premium clients

      Exclusive rewards and bespoke benefits for high-vol traders

    • Pricing

      Discover our tight spreads, plus all other possble fees

    • Professional
    • Active trader program
    • Refer a friend
    • Trading hours
    • 24-hour trading
    • Maintenance schedule
    • Risk management
    • Forex

      Get great rates on majors like EUR/USD, plus minors and exotics

    • Commodities

      Trade on metals, energies & softs, with oil spreads from 2 cents

    • Cryptocurrencies

      Speculate on Bitcoin, Ether and more, with a trusted broker

    • Shares
    • ETFs
    • Indices
    • Currency indices
    • Dividends for index CFDs
    • Dividends for share CFDs
    • CFD forwards
    • TradingView

      Trade through the world-famous supercharts with great pricing

    • MetaTrader 5

      Explore the apex in trading automation with our execution tech

    • The Pepperstone platform
    • MetaTrader 4
    • cTrader
    • Trading tools
    • Integrations
    • Navigating markets

      Latest news and analysis from our experts

    • The Daily Fix

      Your regular round-up of key events

    • Meet the analysts

      Our global team giving your trading the edge

    • Who we are

      Pepperstone was born from the dream of making trading better

    • Company news
    • Company awards
    • Protecting clients online
Daily Market Thoughts

The Trade War Waiting Game Goes On

Michael Brown
Michael Brown
Senior Research Strategist
16 Apr 2025
Share
Stocks trod water yesterday as Treasuries advanced, and the dollar continued to roll over, amid an uneasy calm having befallen financial markets. However, a busy economic calendar awaits today.

WHERE WE STAND – I must admit to feeling rather uneasy at present.

Markets appear becalmed, for the time being, with news flow on the tariff front having slowed somewhat in recent sessions, allowing both implied and realised vol to subside as well, and generally calmer tones to prevail across the board. I won’t use the ‘Q’ word, at risk of tempting fate, but things have become somewhat more subdued.

That said, it is quite obviously too early to sit here and sound the ‘all clear’. Sectoral tariffs on computer chips, and pharmaceuticals are on the way; a 10% blanket tariff is still in place on the vast majority of US imports; Sino-US trade is still essentially blockaded, with China having now halted deliveries of Boeing jets; and, even if it’s still early days, progress towards trade deals to eradicate the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs altogether seems rather slower than most would like.

Consequently, I remain concerned that participants are being lulled into a bit of a false sense of security here. Not only does ample trade uncertainty remain, but we have also yet to fully discount either the upside inflation, or downside growth risks that tariffs will bring, to the US economy, and globally. Furthermore, the threat of a tape bomb in the form of a Trump ‘Truth Social’ post continues to lurk around the very next corner, which in turn continues to cap conviction among market participants, given that the entire outlook could be upended – yet again! – with just a few words.

Anyway, equities ended yesterday as near as makes no difference unchanged, though I remain a rally seller given how earnings growth expectations continue to look rather lofty, and how the market has yet to account for the elevated degree of prevailing uncertainty. A reality check could well be in order on Wall Street before too long.

That description, though, does broadly summarise the price action that we saw elsewhere yesterday.

Treasuries rallied, led by the belly of the curve, however it remains far too soon to say that capital flight out of the US has come to an end, with these sort of changes panning out over months, rather than a few days.

The same can be said of the USD, which rallied against most peers, as the DXY reclaimed the 100 handle, even as incoherent policymaking from the Oval Office continues. I remain a USD rally seller, given this uncertainty, and taking into account that the buck is acting as anything but a safe haven right now. Tariff uncertainty obviously hasn’t gone away, and probably won’t any time soon. Nor will capital that has fled the US be coming back in any particular hurry.

LOOK AHEAD – While there’s a few things of interest on today’s calendar, focus will likely remain on the trade front, and any notable tariff headlines that may cross news wires.

Anyway, in terms of the data docket, the latest US retail sales print stands as the most notable release, with sales set to have risen 1.3% MoM in March. The data is of particular importance given ongoing worries over the state of the US economy, and the recent plunge in consumer sentiment, which may well feed through into consumers having tightened their belts more broadly.

Elsewhere, Fed Chair Powell speaks this evening and, while likely to stick to his recent script, the remarks will be closely scrutinised given how drastically the macroeconomic outlook has shifted since Powell last spoke around 10 days ago. Powell’s focus, though, should remain on ensuring that longer-run inflation expectations stay well-anchored, with the ‘Fed put’ strike price still some way below where we currently trade.

Besides that, the latest UK and eurozone inflation figures are due, though neither should deter the BoE or the ECB from cuts at their next policy meetings. A 20-year US bond auction, plus March’s industrial production figures, a likely unchanged decision from the BoC, and earnings from ASML, round out the data docket.

The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.

Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Other sites

  • The Trade Off
  • Partners
  • Group
  • Careers

Ways to trade

  • Pricing
  • Trading accounts
  • Pro
  • Premium clients
  • Active trader program
  • Refer a friend
  • Trading hours

Platforms

  • Trading platforms
  • Trading tools

Markets and Symbols

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • ETFs
  • Indicies
  • Commodities
  • Currency indicies
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • CFD forwards

Analysis

  • Navigating Markets
  • The Daily Fix
  • Meet the Analysts

Learn to trade

  • Trading Guides
  • Videos
  • Webinars
Pepperstone logo
support.ae@pepperstone.com
+97145734100
Al Fattan Currency House
Level 15, Office 1502 A, Tower 2
P.O.Box 482087, DIFC
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  • Legal documents
  • Privacy policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Cookie policy
  • Whistleblower policy
  • Sitemap

© 2025 Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited

Risk warning: Trading CFDs and FX carries significant risk. Trading OTC derivatives may not be suitable for everyone so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and take care to manage your exposure. You have no ownership of the underlying asset. Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited does not issue advice, recommendations or opinion in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of OTC derivatives nor is Pepperstone a financial advisor. All services are provided on an execution only basis. Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited only provides information of a general nature and does not take into account your financial objectives, personal circumstances. We recommend that you seek independent personal financial or legal advice.

The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited is registered at Al Fattan Currency House, Tower 2, Level 15, Office 1502 A, P. O. Box 482087, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates and is regulated by the DFSA under license number F004356.

The product issuer is Pepperstone Group Limited registered at Level 16, Tower One, 727 Collins St, Docklands, Victoria 3008, Australia and is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, AFSL 414530. You should consider whether you are part of the product issuer’s target market by reviewing the TMD, and read the PDS and other legal documents to ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions.