Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • English
  • عربي
  • Ways to trade

    Pricing

    Trading accounts

    Pro

    Premium clients

    Refer a friend

    Active trader program

    Trading hours

    24-hour trading

    Maintenance schedule

  • Trading platforms

    Trading platforms

    TradingView

    Pepperstone platform

    MetaTrader 5

    MetaTrader 4

    cTrader

    Integrations

    Trading tools

  • Markets

    Markets to trade

    Forex

    Shares

    ETFs

    Indices

    Commodities

    Currency Indices

    Cryptocurrencies

    Dividends for index CFDs

    Dividends for share CFDs

    CFD forwards

  • Market analysis

    Market news

    Navigating Markets

    The Daily Fix

    Meet the analysts

  • Learn to trade

    Trading guides

    CFD trading

    Forex trading

    Commodity trading

    Stock trading

    Crypto trading

    Bitcoin trading

    Technical analysis

    Day trading

    Scalping trading

    Upcoming IPOs

    Gold trading

    Oil trading

    Webinars

  • Professional Clients

  • Partners

  • About us

  • Help and support

  • English
  • عربي

Analysis

NVIDIA
AI

Nvidia stock analysis: Three trading scenarios ahead of GTC 2025

Chris Weston
Chris Weston
Head of Research
6 Mar 2025
Share
Nvidia has lost 11% since reporting Q425 earnings on 26 February, and investors roll deeper into March in the unfamiliar position of the share price underperforming both the S&P500 and the semiconductor index.

Growing uncertainty towards the US macro environment and Trump’s trade policy agenda, as well as disappointment in the company's recent guidance for Q126 gross margins, has seen the share price (on Pepperstone’s 24-hour CFDs) trade to $108.84.

However, we’re now seeing the buyers stepping up and having more of a say and supporting the price at the 3 February swing low. The current technical setup shows the price at an inflection point, and with that in mind we consider the probabilities behind the market’s next move.

White image with red and green pin graph,

3 Tactical Scenarios to Consider

Thinking tactically, we pose three key scenarios that could affect the price action and the technical picture in the near term:

1. Investors look to buy Nvidia at current levels feeling the risk vs reward trade-off has shifted and engage in tactical long positions into the GTC developers conference (on 17-20 March), knowing GTC has historically been the platform for strong buying activity.

2. The would-be buyers hold off until the overhang issues (export controls, tariff uncertainty) are better known, and with greater certainty to price future revenues and gross margins, buyers step up after the facts are known.

3. Alternatively, momentum-focused traders may look at short positions on a daily close below $114.76, with a view that the sellers are dominating, with the risk skewed towards a further decline into $101/$100.

Concerns on Trump’s Future Policy Directives Holding the Buyer’s Back

The major concern hanging over the stock, and keeping the would-be buyers away is Trump’s impending export controls to China and jurisdictions such as Singapore. While the impact Trump’s tariff policy will have on margins remains a known unknown that also impacts sentiment.

Questions around the hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon) capex plans for 2026 and onwards linger, while increasing competition from China as an AI hub, is another factor that has impacted the share price and is well worth monitoring.

All that said, the future still looks bright for Nvidia. As we heard in the recent earnings call the Blackwell ramp is clearly evolving well and offers real confidence that the consensus estimates for gross margins and sales for the quarters ahead are perhaps conservative.

Black image with whote graph for Nvidia

Valuation metrics have also pulled to levels that have historically marked turning points in the share price – the buyers see the stock on sale, and many consider the optimal time to make a move.

Nvidia’s GTC Conference a Historically Positive Event

Market players look to Nvidia’s GTC Conference on 17-20 March and given past form, with the share price gaining 8.1% on average through past conferences, market players may look to buy ahead of what is likely to be a wholly positive event. The GTC developers conference is the highlight of the calendar for Nvidia’s investor base, with CEO Jensen Huang and other senior personnel offering key insights into its technology roadmap and the vision for AI and the future business model.

Another factor that could catalyse an upside move in the share price is the positioning in the options market. Nvidia's 1-month put volatility is priced at a 6.6 vol premium to calls, detailing a sizeable skew in investor demand for protection from further falls in the share price.

We also see Nvidia’s 30-day realised volatility at 83% - the highest level of vol since May 2020. Subsequently, if Nvidia’s share price were to kick higher, options traders would be compelled to sell volatility and close out of their existing puts, which, in turn, would have a positive effect on the underlying share price.

The Trade?

We need to be open-minded to any of the three scenarios playing out – I personally like the tactical view of buying Nvidia into GTC, but I am cognisant that the overhang risks remain, and I would therefore cut out should the price close below $114.76. I would also argue that the consensus position from investors and money managers is to hold off until the overhang concerns are better known and when they have increased visibility to more confidently price margins and sales – once known, the prospect of a strong rally is certainly there.

The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.

Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Other sites

  • The Trade Off
  • Partners
  • Group
  • Careers

Ways to trade

  • Pricing
  • Trading accounts
  • Pro
  • Premium clients
  • Active trader program
  • Refer a friend
  • Trading hours

Platforms

  • Trading platforms
  • Trading tools

Markets and Symbols

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • ETFs
  • Indicies
  • Commodities
  • Currency indicies
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • CFD forwards

Analysis

  • Navigating Markets
  • The Daily Fix
  • Pepperstone Pulse
  • Meet the Analysts

Learn to trade

  • Trading Guides
  • Videos
  • Webinars
Pepperstone logo
support.ae@pepperstone.com
+97145734100
Al Fattan Currency House
Level 15, Office 1502 A, Tower 2
P.O.Box 482087, DIFC
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  • Legal documents
  • Privacy policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Cookie policy
  • Whistleblower policy

© 2025 Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited

Risk warning: Trading CFDs and FX carries significant risk. Trading OTC derivatives may not be suitable for everyone so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and take care to manage your exposure. You have no ownership of the underlying asset. Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited does not issue advice, recommendations or opinion in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of OTC derivatives nor is Pepperstone a financial advisor. All services are provided on an execution only basis. Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited only provides information of a general nature and does not take into account your financial objectives, personal circumstances. We recommend that you seek independent personal financial or legal advice.

Pepperstone Financial Services (DIFC) Limited is registered at Al Fattan Currency House, Tower 2, Level 15, Office 1502 A, P. O. Box 482087, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates and is regulated by the DFSA under license number F004356.

The product issuer is Pepperstone Group Limited registered at Level 16, Tower One, 727 Collins St, Docklands, Victoria 3008, Australia and is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, AFSL 414530. You should consider whether you are part of the product issuer’s target market by reviewing the TMD, and read the PDS and other legal documents to ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions.