Will gold reach $2,800 with the U.S. election and jobs report on the horizon?

Gold prices have resumed their upward trajectory, with bulls eyeing the $2,800 mark amidst market shifts. Recent highs have been supported by reduced Middle Eastern tensions, concerns over U.S. debt, and increasing confidence in a Trump victory. This week’s focus is on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as weak job data could further fuel gold’s rise.

On the technical side, gold broke past the $2,774 level, touching the upper June regression channel. However, with high bullish momentum, some selling pressure is anticipated. If a breakout occurs, a rally could push prices even higher. A closer look at futures flows shows stops being triggered above previous highs, leading to further momentum-driven buying and elevated volumes.

Meanwhile, gold’s usual negative correlation with U.S. Treasuries has shifted, as the U.S. 10-year real yield rises and the term premium expands. Gold’s strength is also supported by steadying Middle Eastern dynamics, with Israel holding off on targeting Iran's oil facilities.

As the U.S. election draws closer, traders remain watchful of fiscal policy implications. A “red wave” win for Trump could inflate U.S. debt through tariffs and corporate tax cuts, increasing bond issuance and potentially lowering yields—a scenario favorable to gold. Conversely, a split Congress may slow fiscal stimulus, tempering gains in gold.

Another key factor is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with a forecasted 110,000 new jobs for October. A notably weak report could prompt rate cuts by the Fed, potentially boosting gold.

This analysis suggests that while bullish sentiment dominates, both the election and upcoming economic data will play critical roles in determining if gold can hit the $2,800 target.