Analysis

Crude

USDJPY

Oil

Brent & WTI Crude Face Key Test – Will Multi-Year Support Levels Hold?

Chris Weston

Head of Research

Mar 10, 2025

After a 4% w/w decline last week, Brent and WTI crude start the new trading week on a cautious tone, with SpotCrude -0.7% and working in line with move lower in S&P500 futures, and we see demand from FX players for the CHF and JPY.

A Heavy Technical Set-up

Traders remain vigilant of further tariff-related headlines, as they do to the incoming US data and the DoE weekly crude inventory report – for now, the SpotCrude price holds rallies below the 8-day EMA, which has defined the trend lower since reversing off $81 on 15 January. With the SpotCrude price within proximity of the multi-year range lows of $65.52, we find ourselves at very meaningful support levels, where should this floor pricing give way, the prospect of further technical and stop loss-related selling would naturally increase.

Preview

The Signal from the Crude Market is Far from Positive

A lower crude price would be seen as a positive in many regards, but in this case, the message we hearing that has driven the move lower in crude is far from positive.

While the recent OPEC+ announcement that the group will look to pump out more barrels from April was a surprise and has helped to contain the upside, it’s the message that the crude market is portraying on expected future demand that is more concerning - with confusion from US trade policy leading to reduced visibility for US and global corporates, while increasing concerns of moderating US economic activity increase the probability of reduced demand and the risk of lower levels in crude remains elevated- and its why a break of the multi-year lows should be on the radar.

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