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Australian dollar and US dollar (AUD/USD) Charts

Chart of the Day: AUDUSD holds above 64 US cents in risk-on rally

The Australian dollar is riding the waves of a risk-in mood, making a strong 1.37% gain against the USD yesterday and closing above 64 US cents. The soaring AUD mirrors yesterday’s rally in US equities but also reflects that markets see a quicker economic recovery for Australia with lockdown restrictions due to ease soon.

AUDUSD chart

"Daily chart: The AUD is staging a strong recovery, with AUDUSD closing above the 61.8% Fib retracement of the December to March sell-off. Price holds above the 5 EMA (green), 20 EMA (blue), and 50 EMA (purple), and below the 200 MA (black)."

AUDUSD closed at a multi-week high yesterday, buoyed by a rally in US equities. AUDUSD failed to hold above 64 US cents two weeks ago, but a lot has changed since then. Australian states are gradually easing restrictions, including the biggest state NSW, building optimism that a domestic economic recovery could come sooner than expected.

Yesterday’s close came above the 61.8% Fib retracement of the December high to March low. If it can close above this level again today, it’ll be a good sign the Aussie bulls have taken control. I’m also watching the 0.6400 handle and the 5-day EMA (green), currently at 0.64096, a natural support level. Beyond that, AUDUSD was well supported by the 20-day EMA (blue) last week.

The AUD will remain sensitive to risk sentiment. Just as a risk-on mood has driven this rally, a shift to risk-off if global turmoil lifts will drive the Aussie lower.

AUD minor pairs

EURAUD: The pair continues to look bearish as the AUD stages a strong recovery and the EUR makes some choppy sideways movements. EURAUD 50-day and 20-day EMA crossed over yesterday.

GBPAUD: This pair is at a pivotal point: having found support at 1.9195. If the AUD bulls can close below here, there should be room for more GBPAUD downside. Australia is easing pandemic restrictions as the curve flattens while the UK continues to battle high case numbers.

AUDNZD: The kiwi is rising too, but not as fast as the AUD. AUDNZD looks bullish and I’m eyeing a move into 1.0800, a level last seen in November. New Zealand and states in Australia are beginning to slowly lift lockdown restrictions.

Sean MacLean

Research Strategist

Chart of the Day: AUD tumbled after Aussie job reports

AUD slumped to 0.6317 Wednesday on the modest risk aversion after a seven-day losing streak. It tumbled during Asian trading hours despite the better-than-expected employment report.

The unemployment rate has slightly risen to 5.2% in March, up from 5.1% in February, sitting well below 5.4% expectation. Total employment increased by 5,900 against -30k. The participation rate was little changed at 65.9%. Since these figures only captured the data in the first two weeks of March and therefore didn’t reflect the full impact of the shutdowns, AUD failed to find some support and extended the decline.

It’s worth noting that some employees temporarily staying at home without pay are not likely to be considered unemployed by ABS. So the April employment data will offer a full picture of the labour market during the time of lockdown.

The weak opening today following a bearish pattern circled on the daily chart suggests a pause of the recent bullish trend. AUD looks bearish in the short term, with 0.6279 being the initial support, which is the confluence of 10 EMA and ascending trendline since March 19. A break here will bring the pair to challenge 0.6238, the 61.8% fibo level. Should the pair hold above the trendline, the downside risk is limited.

On the upside, the pair needs to break above the descending trendline (0.6480) coming from January to reverse the trend and open the door for 0.6684.

S&P 500 futures

As shown in the chart below, the AUDUSD (blue) has been following S&P 500 futures (white), with the high correlation shown between these two. As the US equities returned to the technical bull market within a short period of time, AUD, a global risk proxy, also followed and surged since late March.

AUDUSD (blue) vs S&P 500 futures (white)
AUDUSD chart

So where the US equity markets go, the AUD will likely follow.

However, a batch of downbeat US economic data released yesterday triggered the risk aversion in the market and dragged the S&P 500 futures lower, heavily weighing on AUD. The irony being poor US data actually supports the USD, given the AUD is a proxy of broad risk appetite.

China’s economy

The economic condition of China is no doubt another key factor for AUD.

The chart below shows the correlation between USDAUD (blue, or AUDUSD inverted ) vs USDCNH (white). It’s easy to find that CNH has a high correlation with AUD, or in other words, a higher USDCNH could weigh on the AUDUSD.

USDAUD (blue, or AUDUSD inverted ) vs USDCNH (white)
USDAUD chart

The PBOC yesterday lowered the Medium-term Loan Facility (MLF) rate by 20 bp to 2.95%, putting CNH under pressure especially when we saw the strong USD demands. USDCNH extended the gain to 7.0831 in Asian session. Therefore, AUD reversed the bounce seen following the jobs data and dropped further.

Keep an eye on the upcoming China GDP due Friday, which is expected to drive the AUD.

Jerry Chen

Research Strategist

澳元兑美元在经历了七连阳之后,周三受避险情绪影响下挫1.89%至0.6317,但收盘仍维持在10EMA线上方。今日早盘时段公布的3月份就业数据意外地好于市场预期,但汇价在短暂回升后随即继续下探。

刚刚公布的就业数据显示,澳大利亚3月就业人数增加5900人,远好于预期的减少3万。与此同时,失业率小幅上升至5.2%,同样优于预期的5.4%。从盘面来看,该数据对市场造成的影响有限,因为该报告仅涵盖了3月份前两周的数据,并没有完全体现近期的旅行禁令、企业停工、以及隔离措施所造成的影响。和疫情相关的更全面的影响或将在4月的数据中显现。在数据出炉后,澳元短线急涨后回落。

AUDUSD 日线图
AUDUSD chart

结合周二和周三两日K线形成的看跌形态和今日的低开,加之短线快速拉升后地动能消耗,短期偏空。重要支撑位见0.6279,即10EMA线和三月低点以来的上升趋势线的汇合处。其次关注61.8%斐波回档位0.6238一线。只要收盘能保持在3月19日以来的上升趋势线上方,则下跌幅度相对有限。

上行方面,如果汇价能突破2020年初以来的下行趋势线0.6480的压制,则有望打开通往3月高点0.6684的大门,从而反转中期的下行趋势。若无法上破,空头可能继续掌握主动。

澳美与标普500指数期货的相关性

标普500指数期货毫无疑问是澳元的主要驱动因素。从下图中可以看到,澳美(蓝色)和标普500指数期货(白色)的走势具有高度相关性。澳元作为商品货币,是衡量全球风险情绪的风向标。随着美股以最快速度重新步入技术性牛市,澳元前期跟随股指的上扬实现了快速拉升。

AUDUSD(蓝) vs 标普500期货(白)
AUDUSD chart

但昨天美国公布的一系列经济数据打压了风险资产,避险情绪回升。美国商务部周三公布,3月份零售额下降8.7%,创下自1992年开始有统计以来的最大降幅,市场普遍预测将下降8%。4月纽约联储制造业指数暴跌至-78.2,创有数据记录以来最低水平。美国3月工业产出月率下跌5.4%,创1946年以来最大降幅。另外,各大银行糟糕的一季度盈利预期以及巨额坏账计提,使得银行板块承压,拖累股指。由此澳元的升势戛然而止。今日盘中,标普500期货继续下行,即使就业数据向好但澳元仍然承压回落。

中国经济状况

作为澳洲最大的贸易伙伴,中国的经济基本面对澳元有着重要的影响。长期以来,澳元和人民币的走势同样呈现出正相关性(即AUDUSD和USDCNH负相关)。中国央行昨日宣布下调中期借贷便利(MLF)利率20个基点至2.95%,前值3.15%。人民币兑美元(USDCNH)一度贬至7.0778,拖累澳元。今日亚市时段,人民币延续颓势,最低跌至7.0843,因此澳元也毫不意外地跟跌。重点关注本周五中国第一季度GDP数据对澳元的影响。

Jerry Chen

Research Strategist

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