Key Inputs for Traders
• Nvidia reports in the post-market session on 19 November (around 08:20 AEDT on 20 November).
• CEO Jensen Huang will deliver his post-earnings update shortly after.
• The options-implied move for the event is ±6.2%.
• A ±6% share-price move could equate to roughly a ±0.5% shift in the S&P 500 and ±0.6% in the Nasdaq 100.
• The average absolute move over the past eight quarterly reports is 6%.
• Despite frequent beats on revenue and EPS, Nvidia shares have closed higher in only four of the past eight reports.
• Year-to-date, shares are up 39.2%, and 115% from the April low of $86.42.
• After peaking at $212.19 on 29 October, the share price has corrected 13.3%, though expectations for results and guidance remain high.
• Nvidia remains a core portfolio holding, viewed as the leading AI platform for training and inference. Of 80 analysts, 73 rate the stock a Buy with a median 12-month price target of $233.97.
• Traders can react to earnings, guidance, and Jensen Huang’s remarks with Pepperstone's Nvidia 24-hour US shares.
Technical Setup Ahead of Q3 2026 Earnings
The daily chart shows sellers driving the price from $212 to $185, with support emerging near the 50-day MA.
Price remains below short-term EMAs, with the 3-EMA diverging below the 8-EMA, reflecting weaker momentum as traders trim long exposure pre-earnings.
In the past month, Nvidia has traded mostly between $181.91–$182.89, an area where buyers appear active. The 22 October low ($176.76) is key support — a break could expose the 200-day MA.
A bullish trigger would be a move above the 11 November high ($201.55). With high call-volume open interest between the $190–$200 strikes (21 Nov expiry), a positive surprise could spark dealer hedging (buying the underlying), accelerating the upside momentum.
Earnings Expectations — The Numbers That Matter
The market will focus on revenue, gross margin (GM), and forward guidance for Q4 2026.
Bloomberg consensus estimates:
• Q3 2026 Revenue: $54.99 billion (vs guidance $54 b ± 2%). The market likely wants a beat — $55–56 b would please investors. • Q3 Data-Centre Revenue: $49.11 billion. • Q4 2026 Revenue Guidance: $61.57 billion expected; anything higher would boost sentiment.
• Q3 Gross Margin: 73.64% expected — investors may look for closer to 74%.
• Q4 Gross-Margin Guidance: 74.62%.
Investor Focus - What could drive the longer-term projections
• Following his recent GTC Conference remarks, Huang is expected to expand on Nvidia’s outlook for the Data-Centre TAM (Total Addressable Market) and long-term revenue opportunity.
• Rising concerns about power consumption in the data-centre build-out — and talk of a “power wall” by 2028 — may feature heavily. Power pricing and energy-policy debates could dominate 2026–27.
• Progress toward 14 million GPU sales through CY 2025–26 and whether the $207 billion revenue target for 2026 remains realistic.
• Updates on Nvidia’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and broader AI ecosystem strategy.
Summary
Nvidia enters its Q3 2026 earnings with high expectations, strong YTD performance, and intense focus on AI-driven data-centre growth. Traders should monitor revenue beats above $55 billion, margins near 74%, and any forward-guidance upgrades — all potential catalysts for renewed upside.
